#USCorePCEEasesTo3%InAugust
Aug PCE drops at 12:30 UTC. Dictating a Oct rate hike, this key data will spark double shocks in TradFi & Crypto.
Core Data Breakdown
Metric August Actual Wall Street Forecast Trailing Status
Headline PCE (MoM) 0.3% 0.4% Up from 0.1% in July
Headline PCE (YoY) 3.4% 3.7% Flat from July (revised)
Core PCE (MoM) 0.2% 0.3% Easing policy pressures
Core PCE (YoY) 3.0% 3.3% Holding steady
Note: The Bureau of Economic Analysis also implemented historical methodology adjustments that effectively lowered the core calculation by about 0.2%, adding a layer of nuance to the apparent cooling.
Managing the Remaining Macro Risks
While the immediate October shock has dissolved, the broader tightening cycle under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is not definitively over. If you are managing portfolios across TradFi and crypto, keep these factors in mind:
• The Energy Threat: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to pose a risk to headline inflation via volatile oil and gasoline prices.
• Strong Domestic Spending: A 0.9% surge in consumer spending indicates the underlying economy remains highly resilient, meaning structural inflation could linger.
• December Still on the Table: Most major desks (including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs) still see a high probability of one final 25-basis-point rate hike in December to finish the year at a 4.00%–4.25% target range.
#AltcoinSeasonIndexHoldsAbove60For5Days
$ETH
Aug PCE drops at 12:30 UTC. Dictating a Oct rate hike, this key data will spark double shocks in TradFi & Crypto.
Core Data Breakdown
Metric August Actual Wall Street Forecast Trailing Status
Headline PCE (MoM) 0.3% 0.4% Up from 0.1% in July
Headline PCE (YoY) 3.4% 3.7% Flat from July (revised)
Core PCE (MoM) 0.2% 0.3% Easing policy pressures
Core PCE (YoY) 3.0% 3.3% Holding steady
Note: The Bureau of Economic Analysis also implemented historical methodology adjustments that effectively lowered the core calculation by about 0.2%, adding a layer of nuance to the apparent cooling.
Managing the Remaining Macro Risks
While the immediate October shock has dissolved, the broader tightening cycle under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is not definitively over. If you are managing portfolios across TradFi and crypto, keep these factors in mind:
• The Energy Threat: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to pose a risk to headline inflation via volatile oil and gasoline prices.
• Strong Domestic Spending: A 0.9% surge in consumer spending indicates the underlying economy remains highly resilient, meaning structural inflation could linger.
• December Still on the Table: Most major desks (including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs) still see a high probability of one final 25-basis-point rate hike in December to finish the year at a 4.00%–4.25% target range.
#AltcoinSeasonIndexHoldsAbove60For5Days
$ETH