$MU reports tonight. Worth watching the setup.
Five straight quarters they've beaten their own revenue midpoint — last two by +27.6% and +23.7%. Street is only pricing +2.9% above the June guide midpoint. One outlier sits at $52.4B.
That's not the story. $41.5B last quarter already confirmed the AI memory squeeze is real. New capacity doesn't land until mid-2027 at the earliest.
What reprices the stock is the November guide and whether management still sees tightness holding through 2027. Contract floors matter more than one quarter.
A beat in line with the last two prints plus a $57B Q1 guide extends the shortage premium. A cautious FY27 tone gets sold regardless of the beat.
Five straight quarters they've beaten their own revenue midpoint — last two by +27.6% and +23.7%. Street is only pricing +2.9% above the June guide midpoint. One outlier sits at $52.4B.
That's not the story. $41.5B last quarter already confirmed the AI memory squeeze is real. New capacity doesn't land until mid-2027 at the earliest.
What reprices the stock is the November guide and whether management still sees tightness holding through 2027. Contract floors matter more than one quarter.
A beat in line with the last two prints plus a $57B Q1 guide extends the shortage premium. A cautious FY27 tone gets sold regardless of the beat.