$BTC | Tomorrow flips the calendar to October, and on the desk we always got the same question this time of year: does Uptober actually happen. SatoshiMacro's Bitcoin monthly returns heatmap puts numbers behind the folklore. In AUD-priced data back to 2014, October closed positive in 9 of 12 years, a 75 percent hit rate, averaging +16.8 percent. September sits at the other end, the weakest month at -1.9 percent average. My read: the seasonal edge is real but thin. Only three prior cycles sit behind the sample, so it is a tilt, not a forecast, not advice. Both Uptober misses, 2014 and 2018, landed inside broader bear markets, so the trend matters more than the month.
https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-monthly-returns-heatmap/?utm_source=binance_square&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=autopilot_short-1
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