Given that everyone missed the "Q4 bottom," this is now the new profound scenario everyone is watching and hoping for.
I mean, if I had been waiting for Q4 and watched price rally the way it has, I would probably be praying for this too. That said, there are many differences between the two.
In 2023, when $BTC rallied to 25K, it created equal high before rejecting. There was no meaningful close above the level, no significant high established above 25K, it simply rejected almost immediately. It only deviated above the local lower high and formed an EQH.
Currently, BTC has created a weekly higher high. That is a completely different shift in market structure.
We are now ranging above the previous highs that were flipped, which is a very different dynamic to 2023. On top of that, the bear market drawdown was roughly 77% in that cycle, whereas this one was around 54%.
If we apply the same logic of diminishing returns and shallower retests, the largest pullbacks during this bull market are likely closer to 10-15% all the way up to 126K.
A 10% drop brings BTC to roughly 78K. A 15% drop brings it to around 74K. So even if we followed this fractal identically, it would not necessarily produce the meaningful sweep below the lows that we saw in 2023. The fractal cannot mirror perfectly, even if price retraces below the prior range high.
Regardless, I’m sure a large number of sidelined traders would love the opportunity to long the area they missed. The market has a funny way of not giving people exactly what they want.
With OI reset and price ranging above prior highs, the market looks healthy to me. This is not the scenario I am positioning for; I am still looking towards the 90Ks.
Just thought I would comment on it, as I am seeing this everywhere, exactly like when everyone was waiting for the bottom in Q4.
I mean, if I had been waiting for Q4 and watched price rally the way it has, I would probably be praying for this too. That said, there are many differences between the two.
In 2023, when $BTC rallied to 25K, it created equal high before rejecting. There was no meaningful close above the level, no significant high established above 25K, it simply rejected almost immediately. It only deviated above the local lower high and formed an EQH.
Currently, BTC has created a weekly higher high. That is a completely different shift in market structure.
We are now ranging above the previous highs that were flipped, which is a very different dynamic to 2023. On top of that, the bear market drawdown was roughly 77% in that cycle, whereas this one was around 54%.
If we apply the same logic of diminishing returns and shallower retests, the largest pullbacks during this bull market are likely closer to 10-15% all the way up to 126K.
A 10% drop brings BTC to roughly 78K. A 15% drop brings it to around 74K. So even if we followed this fractal identically, it would not necessarily produce the meaningful sweep below the lows that we saw in 2023. The fractal cannot mirror perfectly, even if price retraces below the prior range high.
Regardless, I’m sure a large number of sidelined traders would love the opportunity to long the area they missed. The market has a funny way of not giving people exactly what they want.
With OI reset and price ranging above prior highs, the market looks healthy to me. This is not the scenario I am positioning for; I am still looking towards the 90Ks.
Just thought I would comment on it, as I am seeing this everywhere, exactly like when everyone was waiting for the bottom in Q4.
