#EarningsSeason
Can Micron beat 86% gross margin — and will that even be enough for MU?
That’s the part I’m watching most closely going into Micron’s FY2026 Q4 report on September 30.
Micron’s own guide is already huge: $50B ± $1B revenue, roughly 86% gross margin, and $31 ± $1 in non-GAAP EPS.
And honestly, I think 86% is achievable.
But maybe that’s not the real question.
Q3 already delivered an 84.9% non-GAAP gross margin, so the step toward 86% isn’t some crazy leap. The bigger issue is what happens after that. Micron says its Q4 margin outlook already assumes a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases.
That makes the FY2027 outlook really important.
If Micron beats Q4 but sounds cautious on future pricing, margins, or capacity, the market could focus on the second half of the sentence rather than the headline beat.
And there’s another interesting piece: Micron is already shipping HBM4 in high volume to its lead customer, while HBM4E volume production is expected in 2027. The company also expects FY2027 quarterly capex to run above Q4 levels as it expands cleanroom capacity for longer-term demand.
So I’m constructive on the fundamentals, but much less comfortable assuming the stock automatically follows.
The real test is whether these margins are becoming a durable earnings structure — or simply an extraordinary point in the memory cycle.
That’s what I’ll be listening for after the numbers.
Still trying to figure out what this actually changes.
Can Micron beat 86% gross margin — and will that even be enough for MU?
That’s the part I’m watching most closely going into Micron’s FY2026 Q4 report on September 30.
Micron’s own guide is already huge: $50B ± $1B revenue, roughly 86% gross margin, and $31 ± $1 in non-GAAP EPS.
And honestly, I think 86% is achievable.
But maybe that’s not the real question.
Q3 already delivered an 84.9% non-GAAP gross margin, so the step toward 86% isn’t some crazy leap. The bigger issue is what happens after that. Micron says its Q4 margin outlook already assumes a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases.
That makes the FY2027 outlook really important.
If Micron beats Q4 but sounds cautious on future pricing, margins, or capacity, the market could focus on the second half of the sentence rather than the headline beat.
And there’s another interesting piece: Micron is already shipping HBM4 in high volume to its lead customer, while HBM4E volume production is expected in 2027. The company also expects FY2027 quarterly capex to run above Q4 levels as it expands cleanroom capacity for longer-term demand.
So I’m constructive on the fundamentals, but much less comfortable assuming the stock automatically follows.
The real test is whether these margins are becoming a durable earnings structure — or simply an extraordinary point in the memory cycle.
That’s what I’ll be listening for after the numbers.
Still trying to figure out what this actually changes.