Everyone keeps pointing at rising global liquidity as the bullish signal.
But there’s a problem.
Global M2 is around a record $103T, yet $BTC is still roughly 33% below its high.
At the same time, the bond market is flashing the opposite signal.
The US 30Y yield just pushed to 5.5%, while the 10Y hit 5.22% — levels we haven’t seen in years.
That tells me one thing:
More money existing ≠ more money flowing into risk assets.
If borrowing costs keep climbing, liquidity can expand on paper while financial conditions remain tight.
That’s why I’m watching the combination, not M2 alone.
If M2 keeps expanding and yields finally start cooling, that would change the picture.
Until then, $BTC has to prove that liquidity is actually reaching risk assets.
And $ETH /BTC showing relative strength suggests capital is already rotating within crypto rather than simply chasing the entire market higher.
Macro is giving two very different signals right now.
That divergence is what matters.
#BTC #Crypto #Write2Earn
But there’s a problem.
Global M2 is around a record $103T, yet $BTC is still roughly 33% below its high.
At the same time, the bond market is flashing the opposite signal.
The US 30Y yield just pushed to 5.5%, while the 10Y hit 5.22% — levels we haven’t seen in years.
That tells me one thing:
More money existing ≠ more money flowing into risk assets.
If borrowing costs keep climbing, liquidity can expand on paper while financial conditions remain tight.
That’s why I’m watching the combination, not M2 alone.
If M2 keeps expanding and yields finally start cooling, that would change the picture.
Until then, $BTC has to prove that liquidity is actually reaching risk assets.
And $ETH /BTC showing relative strength suggests capital is already rotating within crypto rather than simply chasing the entire market higher.
Macro is giving two very different signals right now.
That divergence is what matters.
#BTC #Crypto #Write2Earn
