🚨 $BTC Is Dumping Again... But WHY? $ZEC
Guys, $BTC dropped suddenly today. That's not surprising to me, but I know many people are now trapped on the upside thinking: close or hold?
I've said this many times already: the macro pressure never really disappeared. Rate-hike expectations, oil, war risk and high yields were still sitting in the background.
Yesterday BTC got some relief because oil cooled down. Today oil pumped again, and that's one of the major reasons BTC is under pressure.
But why is oil pumping?
Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pause the conflict. That pushed oil higher again, while Treasury yields also moved up.
And guys, I posted about the Iran/oil risk around 2 days ago. Look at today. This is exactly why I keep saying weekend relief moves can be temporary when the underlying macro pressure is still there.
Now what?
Look at the data. BTC OI is still elevated while price is falling. L/S remains long-heavy around 1.3+, CVD is negative and orderbook flow isn't showing strong accumulation.
Liquidation heatmap shows liquidity around $82.3K-$81.5K, then a bigger zone around $80.8K-$80K. Above, we have liquidity around $83.8K-$84.5K.
Volume profile is heavy around $83.9K-$84.2K, while 1H VWAP is around $83.35K. BTC is below both.
Spot money flow is also weak across 1H, 4H and 1D.
Personally, I think yields can rise again today, especially during the US session. If that happens while BTC loses $82.3K, I wouldn't be surprised to see $80K or even below $80K.
But I'm NOT looking for a short here.
NFP is coming this week, so I'd rather let BTC make the deeper pullback first. If sellers get exhausted around the lower liquidity zones, a pre-NFP positioning pump could offer much better RR.
Entry: $81.5k-$82.8K
Recommended Entry: $78.5K-$79.5K
TP1: $83.35K
TP2: $84.5K
TP3: $87K
SL: $77.5K
Not blindly buying these levels. I want the reaction first: CVD, OI, spot flow, taker activity and orderbook. For me, the drop is more interesting than chasing the drop. Let's see what the US session brings.
Guys, $BTC dropped suddenly today. That's not surprising to me, but I know many people are now trapped on the upside thinking: close or hold?
I've said this many times already: the macro pressure never really disappeared. Rate-hike expectations, oil, war risk and high yields were still sitting in the background.
Yesterday BTC got some relief because oil cooled down. Today oil pumped again, and that's one of the major reasons BTC is under pressure.
But why is oil pumping?
Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pause the conflict. That pushed oil higher again, while Treasury yields also moved up.
And guys, I posted about the Iran/oil risk around 2 days ago. Look at today. This is exactly why I keep saying weekend relief moves can be temporary when the underlying macro pressure is still there.
Now what?
Look at the data. BTC OI is still elevated while price is falling. L/S remains long-heavy around 1.3+, CVD is negative and orderbook flow isn't showing strong accumulation.
Liquidation heatmap shows liquidity around $82.3K-$81.5K, then a bigger zone around $80.8K-$80K. Above, we have liquidity around $83.8K-$84.5K.
Volume profile is heavy around $83.9K-$84.2K, while 1H VWAP is around $83.35K. BTC is below both.
Spot money flow is also weak across 1H, 4H and 1D.
Personally, I think yields can rise again today, especially during the US session. If that happens while BTC loses $82.3K, I wouldn't be surprised to see $80K or even below $80K.
But I'm NOT looking for a short here.
NFP is coming this week, so I'd rather let BTC make the deeper pullback first. If sellers get exhausted around the lower liquidity zones, a pre-NFP positioning pump could offer much better RR.
Entry: $81.5k-$82.8K
Recommended Entry: $78.5K-$79.5K
TP1: $83.35K
TP2: $84.5K
TP3: $87K
SL: $77.5K
Not blindly buying these levels. I want the reaction first: CVD, OI, spot flow, taker activity and orderbook. For me, the drop is more interesting than chasing the drop. Let's see what the US session brings.
