LOADED WEEK INCOMING — macro meets crypto and it's all happening at once 🔥
Monday kicks off with JOLTS job openings for August (expectations already low), Q2 GDP final read, and Personal Income/Outlays for August including PCE — the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. This drops right after the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2004 and the 10-year touched levels last seen in 2007. Rates are screaming and the Fed's watching.
Friday: September jobs report. First Friday of the month, always a mover.
Fed officials are split. Michael Barr says more hikes likely needed. NY Fed's John Williams called another hike "reasonable" by year-end. CME FedWatch now shows October hike odds above 75% — up from roughly 49% a week ago. The market's repricing in real time.
On the crypto side, things are building in parallel. The CFTC's Regulation Crypto Asset Markets proposal is still under White House review. Hyperliquid's new lending product pulled $269M in borrowing on day one and pushed its TVL to parity with Arbitrum. That's real capital moving fast.
$BTC is sitting near $86,000. Rate expectations, PCE data, and the jobs report all land in the same five days. This is the week that decides whether the Fed's "one and done" hike story holds or whether the market has to reprice for more.
TRADE IDEA: If PCE comes in hot and jobs stay strong, expect $BTC to test support around $84,500. If macro softens, we could see a push toward $88,000. Watch the Fed pricing and Treasury yields — they're leading this move. Risk-off if rates spike further. Risk-on if the data cools and hike odds drop. This week sets the tone for Q4.
Monday kicks off with JOLTS job openings for August (expectations already low), Q2 GDP final read, and Personal Income/Outlays for August including PCE — the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. This drops right after the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2004 and the 10-year touched levels last seen in 2007. Rates are screaming and the Fed's watching.
Friday: September jobs report. First Friday of the month, always a mover.
Fed officials are split. Michael Barr says more hikes likely needed. NY Fed's John Williams called another hike "reasonable" by year-end. CME FedWatch now shows October hike odds above 75% — up from roughly 49% a week ago. The market's repricing in real time.
On the crypto side, things are building in parallel. The CFTC's Regulation Crypto Asset Markets proposal is still under White House review. Hyperliquid's new lending product pulled $269M in borrowing on day one and pushed its TVL to parity with Arbitrum. That's real capital moving fast.
$BTC is sitting near $86,000. Rate expectations, PCE data, and the jobs report all land in the same five days. This is the week that decides whether the Fed's "one and done" hike story holds or whether the market has to reprice for more.
TRADE IDEA: If PCE comes in hot and jobs stay strong, expect $BTC to test support around $84,500. If macro softens, we could see a push toward $88,000. Watch the Fed pricing and Treasury yields — they're leading this move. Risk-off if rates spike further. Risk-on if the data cools and hike odds drop. This week sets the tone for Q4.