September is almost closed green.
And the chart is giving me something interesting to watch:
🟢 July: +7.36%
🟢 August: +24.95%
🟢 September: +7.3% so far
That would give Bitcoin 3 consecutive green months.
But here is the part I’m watching more closely…
Historically, the chart shows October averaging +19.92% with a +14.71% median. That sounds bullish, but seasonality is not a guarantee.
TradingView
The on chain picture
Today’s exchange data is getting interesting.
Binance: more than 13,800 BTC reportedly left Binance in a single day — its largest daily net outflow since 2023. Its reserves reportedly fell by roughly 20,000 BTC in four days.
crypto.news
Glassnode’s latest exchange-balance snapshot also shows roughly:
Coinbase: 961.6K BTC
Binance: 735.6K BTC
Bitfinex: 386.3K BTC
Kraken: 160.7K BTC
OKX: 134.9K BTC
Bybit: 63.3K BTC
Bitstamp: 39.3K BTC
These are exchange balances, not direct buying signals, but declining readily available exchange supply is something I keep watching when price is holding higher levels.
Glassnode Studio
But Bitcoin isn't moving alone
Gold is telling another part of the same macro story.
Gold ETFs attracted $18B in August, while global gold ETF holdings reached a record 4,189 tonnes.
World Gold Council
And The Block reported that Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold reached a record level earlier this month.
The Block
So I’m watching BTC + Gold + Dollar + yields together, not BTC in isolation.
And then there are CFDs
CFD markets can amplify volatility because leverage allows relatively small moves in the underlying asset to create much larger P&L swings.
That matters going into October: Bitget has already announced temporary CFD leverage adjustments around major economic releases including ADP, GDP/Core PCE, Jobless Claims, ISM and NFP.
Bitget
So my question isn't simply:
“Is Uptober coming?”
My question is:
Will spot demand + falling exchange balances + macro liquidity overpower leverage-driven selling if volatility returns?
October starts in 5 days.
I'm watching the on chain flows first, price second.
#QNTRises39% #BitgetBreachForgedRequestsNotStolenKeys #CFTCUpdatesGuidanceOnTokenizedAssets #BitcoinSpotETFsNetInflow$191M
