Core goods orders jumped 1.6% last month—nearly triple what most expected. That's real demand showing up, not just noise.

But shipments cooled to 0.6%, down from 1.4% prior. Orders are one thing. Actually getting stuff out the door is another.

What this tells me: businesses are still willing to place bets on the future, but the machinery of delivery is slowing. That gap matters. It's where optimism meets friction.