#OIL
As of Sept. 25, Brent was around $105–106, while WTI was around $93–94. Oil has been moving sharply because traders are balancing possible US–Iran diplomacy/Hormuz reopening against continued attacks and Middle East supply risks.
Next Week Scenarios
Bullish scenario
If attacks on Saudi/Gulf infrastructure continue If Strait of Hormuz reopening negotiations fail Brent could retest $106–110 A confirmed major supply disruption could push it above $110
Bearish scenario
If US–Iran negotiations make real progress If Hormuz traffic improves and Saudi exports recover Brent could fall toward $100, with a possible move below $100 if supply conditions improve significantly. Saudi Arabia has already restarted its East-West pipeline, which is helping supply expectations.
KEY Levels I would watch
BrentMeaning$110+Strong bullish breakout zone$106–108Major resistance/supply-risk zone$100–105Key decision area$100Major psychological supportBelow $100Further downside risk if geopolitical premium unwinds
Bottom line: Next week, don't treat oil as a normal technical market. US–Iran/Hormuz headlines can override technical levels very quickly.
As of Sept. 25, Brent was around $105–106, while WTI was around $93–94. Oil has been moving sharply because traders are balancing possible US–Iran diplomacy/Hormuz reopening against continued attacks and Middle East supply risks.
Next Week Scenarios
Bullish scenario
If attacks on Saudi/Gulf infrastructure continue If Strait of Hormuz reopening negotiations fail Brent could retest $106–110 A confirmed major supply disruption could push it above $110
Bearish scenario
If US–Iran negotiations make real progress If Hormuz traffic improves and Saudi exports recover Brent could fall toward $100, with a possible move below $100 if supply conditions improve significantly. Saudi Arabia has already restarted its East-West pipeline, which is helping supply expectations.
KEY Levels I would watch
BrentMeaning$110+Strong bullish breakout zone$106–108Major resistance/supply-risk zone$100–105Key decision area$100Major psychological supportBelow $100Further downside risk if geopolitical premium unwinds
Bottom line: Next week, don't treat oil as a normal technical market. US–Iran/Hormuz headlines can override technical levels very quickly.