Closed my oil short at $89.50 after riding it from $100. Still think $87.50 is in play (60% prob), but risk/reward compressed too much to justify the hold.
Here's the logic:
• At $100 → 75% prob of pullback, $13 downside. Easy hold.
• At $96 → 65-70% prob, $8-9 left. Still clean.
• At $92 → 60% prob, $4.50 left. Marginal but okay.
• At $89.50 → 60% prob, $2 left. Not worth the reversal risk.
Chart showed triple bull div on the 1H RSI around $89, signaling a bounce back toward $92. That was my exit trigger. Could consolidate here and base, could still dump to $87.50. Don't care — I took the meat, cut the tail risk.
This is how you preserve capital: lock greens when the setup thins out, don't chase the last $2 into a reversal. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I'd rather book 90% of the move than give back 50% hoping for perfection.
If it drops to $87.50 without me, fine. I already ate. If it rips to $92, I'm flat and clean. That's the game.
Here's the logic:
• At $100 → 75% prob of pullback, $13 downside. Easy hold.
• At $96 → 65-70% prob, $8-9 left. Still clean.
• At $92 → 60% prob, $4.50 left. Marginal but okay.
• At $89.50 → 60% prob, $2 left. Not worth the reversal risk.
Chart showed triple bull div on the 1H RSI around $89, signaling a bounce back toward $92. That was my exit trigger. Could consolidate here and base, could still dump to $87.50. Don't care — I took the meat, cut the tail risk.
This is how you preserve capital: lock greens when the setup thins out, don't chase the last $2 into a reversal. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I'd rather book 90% of the move than give back 50% hoping for perfection.
If it drops to $87.50 without me, fine. I already ate. If it rips to $92, I'm flat and clean. That's the game.
