Goldman calling for 2.2% GDP growth in '26, 2.1% in '27. Not a recession, but not much cushion either.
Here's the issue: at that pace, any policy misstep or external shock and you're flirting with stall speed. The labor market looks fine now, but momentum matters more than levels when growth is this modest.
Consensus loves to anchor on "no recession" without asking what happens if we're wrong by just 50-100bps. That's the difference between expansion and contraction.
Markets price perfection. Fundamentals rarely deliver it.
Here's the issue: at that pace, any policy misstep or external shock and you're flirting with stall speed. The labor market looks fine now, but momentum matters more than levels when growth is this modest.
Consensus loves to anchor on "no recession" without asking what happens if we're wrong by just 50-100bps. That's the difference between expansion and contraction.
Markets price perfection. Fundamentals rarely deliver it.
