Yep, that's the other half of same story — *Eric Balchunas clip posted Sep 17* on X, right after that JPMorgan note.$ONE $G $UNI
*Balchunas call:*
> "As younger investors get more money and grow up with Bitcoin as their store of value, I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets"
*His drivers:*
- *Generational wealth transfer* — boomers hold gold, millennials/Gen Z hold BTC as default store of value
- *Vol compression:* BTC vol falling toward gold, makes institutional allocation easier
- *Comfort:* BlackRock/Fidelity now market BTC ETF same shelf as GLD
*Numbers today:*
- Gold ETFs (US): ∼$165-170B AUM
- Bitcoin ETFs (US): ∼$125B peak Jan 2025, ∼$78B now after outflows — so needs to recover to ATH first, then 2-3x
- For BTC ETFs to triple gold: ∼$500B AUM = roughly $190k-200k BTC assuming same holdings, vs JPMorgan's vol-adjusted fair value $170k
*Why JPMorgan + Balchunas tied together:*
JPMorgan said BTC ETFs only recovered 50% of 2026 outflows vs gold 100% — Balchunas says that gap _is_ the opportunity. Short-term: IBIT shorts near high = squeeze fuel. Long-term: demographics.
Caveat he added himself: "Big institutional money still prefers gold today because Bitcoin still moves like Nasdaq-100" — high beta, not yet safe-haven.
So not imminent flip — it's a 5-10 year adoption thesis, with short-term technical setup helping.#BOJHikesRatesTo31YearHigh #HKMAPlansWholesaleCBDCByYearEnd
*Balchunas call:*
> "As younger investors get more money and grow up with Bitcoin as their store of value, I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets"
*His drivers:*
- *Generational wealth transfer* — boomers hold gold, millennials/Gen Z hold BTC as default store of value
- *Vol compression:* BTC vol falling toward gold, makes institutional allocation easier
- *Comfort:* BlackRock/Fidelity now market BTC ETF same shelf as GLD
*Numbers today:*
- Gold ETFs (US): ∼$165-170B AUM
- Bitcoin ETFs (US): ∼$125B peak Jan 2025, ∼$78B now after outflows — so needs to recover to ATH first, then 2-3x
- For BTC ETFs to triple gold: ∼$500B AUM = roughly $190k-200k BTC assuming same holdings, vs JPMorgan's vol-adjusted fair value $170k
*Why JPMorgan + Balchunas tied together:*
JPMorgan said BTC ETFs only recovered 50% of 2026 outflows vs gold 100% — Balchunas says that gap _is_ the opportunity. Short-term: IBIT shorts near high = squeeze fuel. Long-term: demographics.
Caveat he added himself: "Big institutional money still prefers gold today because Bitcoin still moves like Nasdaq-100" — high beta, not yet safe-haven.
So not imminent flip — it's a 5-10 year adoption thesis, with short-term technical setup helping.#BOJHikesRatesTo31YearHigh #HKMAPlansWholesaleCBDCByYearEnd
