The Federal Reserve has finally pulled the trigger, raising interest rates for the first time in three years. And it gets worse: the accompanying dot plot — the Fed's own forecast of where rates are headed — signals a real possibility of another hike before the year is out.

In the short term, though, the market had already braced for this. The sell-off happened in advance, priced in well before the announcement itself. That's why, paradoxically, we're seeing Bitcoin bounce back in the immediate aftermath — the market can't really be read as "bad news, therefore sell," because the bad news was already absorbed. That said, this short-term relief shouldn't be mistaken for a trend reversal. Longer term, the downside pressure hasn't gone away; the structural headwinds are still very much in place.

Here's where I'll offer my own take, though: I think there's still real room for the Fed to maneuver on that second hike — and my bet is it ultimately won't happen. If anything, the dot plot's hawkish signal may be more about jawboning the market into caution than an actual commitment to follow through.

My reasoning: a few months out, I expect a ceasefire between the US and Iran. That would ease pressure on oil prices, oil coming down would feed through into softer inflation numbers, and with inflation cooling, the Fed would lose its main justification for a second hike. In that scenario, the rate hike that's currently priced in as "likely" may simply never get executed.#StellarActivatesProtocol28At211TPS #DtcpayCompletes$25MSeriesA $NVDAB