The first Fed hike in more than three years is now actually here. The Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, and most policymakers are signalling at least one more hike could come before year-end. For $BTC, I think the bigger issue is not the hike itself anymore. It is whether this turns into a real tightening cycle. Bitcoin can absorb one hike if ETF demand and spot buying stay strong. What gets more difficult is a combination of higher rates, rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar all happening together. That pulls liquidity away from risk assets fast. The interesting part is $BTC has already spent weeks trading around this macro risk, so some of the fear was priced in before the decision. Now I am watching the reaction. If BTC holds its range despite a hawkish Fed, that is a pretty strong sign buyers are still there. If every bounce starts getting sold while yields keep climbing, then the market may need another reset lower first. One hike does not kill the $BTC setup. A sustained higher-for-longer cycle is the real test.