The Fed’s key update today, 2026-09-16: the FOMC’s two-day meeting concludes today, with the rate decision due at 2:00 p.m. ET and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The official Federal Reserve calendar confirms this is also a projections meeting, so the statement will come with updated economic forecasts and the closely watched “dot plot.”

Markets are broadly expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike, rather than a cut. Recent reporting put market-implied odds for a hike around 86%–90%+ ahead of the decision, after inflation data strengthened the case for tighter policy. That expectation can change quickly, so the actual statement and Chair Warsh’s tone matter more than pre-meeting odds.
A hike by itself may cause a limited move if it is already priced in.
A more hawkish dot plot—showing officials expect higher rates for longer—could support Treasury yields and the #U.S. dollar, which can pressure higher-risk assets in the short term.
If the Fed emphasizes inflation risks but signals no aggressive sequence of future hikes, markets may focus on the absence of an even more restrictive path.
The press conference is especially important: comments on inflation, growth, and the next meetings often move markets more than the headline rate decision

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