Fed Rate Watch: All Eyes on the Dot Plot đš
Todayâs FOMC meeting brings the rate decision and macroeconomic projections at 2:00 PM ET đ, followed by Kevin Warshâs press conference at 2:30 PM đïž.
Markets are pricing in nearly 90% odds of a 25 bps rate hike đ, bringing the target range up to 3.75%â4.00%âmarking the first rate increase since 2023. The shift follows a hotter-than-expected core CPI report, which rose 0.3% month-over-month đ„.
While the 25 bps increase is largely baked in, the updated Dot Plot will be the key catalyst đ. It determines whether today's move is a single adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle đ.