#cpiwatch đš CPI Is In â Is the Fed About to Make a Hawkish Move?
#CPIWatch $BTC
The latest U.S. economic data has put the Fed in a difficult position.
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 162K, beating expectations of around 56K, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. This suggests that the labor market is still showing resilience despite expectations of a slowdown.
Then came the August CPI report. Headline CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI also rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year.
So, will the Fed hike or hold?
My view is a 25-basis-point hike is more likely. Stronger employment combined with inflation that remains above the Fed's 2% target gives policymakers a reason to remain cautious about easing.
However, the bigger market move may come from the Fed's guidance rather than the hike itself. If a 25 bp hike is already priced in, stocks and gold could react more strongly to what Powell says about future policy.
đ Stocks: Short-term cautious
đȘ Gold: Volatile, but still interesting as a hedge
đŠ Fed: My base case â 25 bp hike
The key question is whether this is already priced into the market.
Whatâs your view â Hike or Hold? Bullish or Bearish?
#CPIWatch #CPI #Fed #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Gold #Stocks #MarketAnalysis
#CPIWatch $BTC
The latest U.S. economic data has put the Fed in a difficult position.
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 162K, beating expectations of around 56K, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. This suggests that the labor market is still showing resilience despite expectations of a slowdown.
Then came the August CPI report. Headline CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI also rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year.
So, will the Fed hike or hold?
My view is a 25-basis-point hike is more likely. Stronger employment combined with inflation that remains above the Fed's 2% target gives policymakers a reason to remain cautious about easing.
However, the bigger market move may come from the Fed's guidance rather than the hike itself. If a 25 bp hike is already priced in, stocks and gold could react more strongly to what Powell says about future policy.
đ Stocks: Short-term cautious
đȘ Gold: Volatile, but still interesting as a hedge
đŠ Fed: My base case â 25 bp hike
The key question is whether this is already priced into the market.
Whatâs your view â Hike or Hold? Bullish or Bearish?
#CPIWatch #CPI #Fed #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Gold #Stocks #MarketAnalysis