đ¨ Jackson Hole Fallout: Warsh Delivers a Hawkish Message â Markets Await Payroll Data
Warshâs first Jackson Hole keynote came in more hawkish than expected, putting inflation back at the center of the Fedâs focus.
He highlighted that inflation remains elevated, with PCE running at 4.1% on a six-month basis, while noting that financial conditions are not sufficiently restrictive.
Warsh also rejected the idea of relying on forward guidance, emphasizing that future decisions will be driven by incoming economic data.
Market reaction was immediate:
⢠đ September rate hike expectations climbed toward 50%
⢠⿠Bitcoin pulled back toward $78,700
⢠đ Bitcoin ETFs ended a 9-day inflow streak with a $201.9M outflow
⢠đ´ USD/JPY moved above 160, marking a one-month low for the yen
However, one factor now stands above everything else: the labor market.
Bloombergâs Anna Wong highlighted that next weekâs payroll report could be a major turning point, with the possibility of a negative print. Historically, the Fed has not raised rates following consecutive negative payroll readings.
Warshâs closing message summarized the Fedâs current position:
âDiscipline, not a decision.â
The Fed is not committing to a path â the data will determine the next move.
For Bitcoin, the key battle remains:
đš $80Kâ$82K resistance zone
đš $75.5K potential support area
A weak jobs report could revive expectations of easier policy and support risk assets.
A strong jobs report could reinforce the hawkish narrative and keep pressure on Bitcoin.
The next payroll report may decide the marketâs#YenPasses160PerDollarToOneMonthLow #NYSilverFuturesDrop3% #WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus next major direction.$BTC $ETH $SOL
Warshâs first Jackson Hole keynote came in more hawkish than expected, putting inflation back at the center of the Fedâs focus.
He highlighted that inflation remains elevated, with PCE running at 4.1% on a six-month basis, while noting that financial conditions are not sufficiently restrictive.
Warsh also rejected the idea of relying on forward guidance, emphasizing that future decisions will be driven by incoming economic data.
Market reaction was immediate:
⢠đ September rate hike expectations climbed toward 50%
⢠⿠Bitcoin pulled back toward $78,700
⢠đ Bitcoin ETFs ended a 9-day inflow streak with a $201.9M outflow
⢠đ´ USD/JPY moved above 160, marking a one-month low for the yen
However, one factor now stands above everything else: the labor market.
Bloombergâs Anna Wong highlighted that next weekâs payroll report could be a major turning point, with the possibility of a negative print. Historically, the Fed has not raised rates following consecutive negative payroll readings.
Warshâs closing message summarized the Fedâs current position:
âDiscipline, not a decision.â
The Fed is not committing to a path â the data will determine the next move.
For Bitcoin, the key battle remains:
đš $80Kâ$82K resistance zone
đš $75.5K potential support area
A weak jobs report could revive expectations of easier policy and support risk assets.
A strong jobs report could reinforce the hawkish narrative and keep pressure on Bitcoin.
The next payroll report may decide the marketâs#YenPasses160PerDollarToOneMonthLow #NYSilverFuturesDrop3% #WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus next major direction.$BTC $ETH $SOL