đš SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING
Bitcoin exploded from $64K to $82K, and now everyone thinks the bull market is back. Almost nobody understands what actually triggered it.
It started in Treasuries. The U.S. Treasury doubled its long-term bond buybacks, from $2B to at least $4B per operation. Yields dropped instantly. And Bitcoin moved.
Then Trump put crypto back in the spotlight, reviving the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve talk. More fuel. Then the short squeeze took over, $4 billion in shorts liquidated in 48 hours, forced buying doing the rest.
The chain reaction was simple:
Treasury expands buybacks â yields fall â Trump revives crypto hopium â BTC pumps â shorts get liquidated â forced buying sends it to $82K.
But here's what everyone's missing: this is NOT QE. The Fed did not turn the printer back on. In fact, the latest FOMC minutes show a September rate hike is still on the table.
That's not the macro backdrop of a clean bull run. That's a squeeze on borrowed time.
And we've seen this exact trap before. August 2022: Bitcoin suddenly rallied, everyone called the bottom, then it collapsed again. Same time of year. Same excitement. Same belief. And macro is worse now, war risk unresolved, oil still elevated.
One level decides everything: $83Kâ$85K.
Reaching it means nothing. Holding it means everything. Rejected there, the bull trap stays intact. Break and hold above it, the structure changes.
Until then, my plan hasn't changed.
Reminder: I've called the major tops and bottoms for years, including the $16K bottom and the $126K top.
The next call matters more. It goes here, publicly, like always.
Turn notifications on. If you're not following yet, you'll understand why soon enough.
Bitcoin exploded from $64K to $82K, and now everyone thinks the bull market is back. Almost nobody understands what actually triggered it.
It started in Treasuries. The U.S. Treasury doubled its long-term bond buybacks, from $2B to at least $4B per operation. Yields dropped instantly. And Bitcoin moved.
Then Trump put crypto back in the spotlight, reviving the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve talk. More fuel. Then the short squeeze took over, $4 billion in shorts liquidated in 48 hours, forced buying doing the rest.
The chain reaction was simple:
Treasury expands buybacks â yields fall â Trump revives crypto hopium â BTC pumps â shorts get liquidated â forced buying sends it to $82K.
But here's what everyone's missing: this is NOT QE. The Fed did not turn the printer back on. In fact, the latest FOMC minutes show a September rate hike is still on the table.
That's not the macro backdrop of a clean bull run. That's a squeeze on borrowed time.
And we've seen this exact trap before. August 2022: Bitcoin suddenly rallied, everyone called the bottom, then it collapsed again. Same time of year. Same excitement. Same belief. And macro is worse now, war risk unresolved, oil still elevated.
One level decides everything: $83Kâ$85K.
Reaching it means nothing. Holding it means everything. Rejected there, the bull trap stays intact. Break and hold above it, the structure changes.
Until then, my plan hasn't changed.
Reminder: I've called the major tops and bottoms for years, including the $16K bottom and the $126K top.
The next call matters more. It goes here, publicly, like always.
Turn notifications on. If you're not following yet, you'll understand why soon enough.
