Nobody wants to see it, but the Fibonacci bottoming pattern has held every cycle — 2018, 2022, and now.
Both prior cycles saw $BTC push past the 0.618 retracement and deep into the 0.75 zone before finding a true bottom. Right now, we're nowhere near that pocket.
Base case: another leg down into the 0.618–0.75 zone.
What changes the view? A structural breakout above $82K–$83K, followed by a retest of at least 50% of that breakout leg. Until that happens, the downside thesis stands.
This is a hold-through-pain moment. Cycles repeat until they don't — but the pattern is still intact. Stay disciplined, keep dry powder ready, and don't fight the structure until it breaks.
Both prior cycles saw $BTC push past the 0.618 retracement and deep into the 0.75 zone before finding a true bottom. Right now, we're nowhere near that pocket.
Base case: another leg down into the 0.618–0.75 zone.
What changes the view? A structural breakout above $82K–$83K, followed by a retest of at least 50% of that breakout leg. Until that happens, the downside thesis stands.
This is a hold-through-pain moment. Cycles repeat until they don't — but the pattern is still intact. Stay disciplined, keep dry powder ready, and don't fight the structure until it breaks.