#fedseptratehikeoddsriseto57% — Fed Hike Odds Just More Than Doubled in One Day — September Is Now a Coin Flip 🎲
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut (Aug 28) just rewired the market: September rate-hike odds jumped to ~57% — from roughly 35% the prior day (CME FedWatch showed 55.7%; some prints touched 57–58%). A 25bps hike is now the base case, not the tail risk.
Why the repricing:
🗣️ Warsh: inflation at 3.7% PCE is falling "too slowly", there's "more work to do", the 2% target is "firm, fixed" — and forward guidance is dead . No more pre-announcing moves; every data point now hits price directly
📈 The 2Y yield jumped to its highest since July ; the 10Y hit 4.72%
📉 Market reaction: S&P −0.25% (7,711.76), Nasdaq −0.52% (26,402.42), semis hammered ($NVDA −4.6%, $MRVL −10%)
The crypto spillover (ties into #BTCDrops3.4%To$77383):
$BTC slid to a $76,877 low, closing ~$77,557 (−3.39%)~$481M in total liquidations in 24h, $360M+ of it long liquidations — leveraged bulls got caught offside
What to watch:
🔍 August CPI (next week) — decides if ~57% is the new reality or a knee-jerk
📊 Jobs data + ISM Manufacturing PMI (next week) — the first test of the "no guidance" era
📅 Fed meeting Sep 17 — hike, hold, or coin flip? Markets say: flip a coin
#BTCDrops3.4%To$77383 #USShortTermTreasuryYieldsJump #TrumpSaysUSReachedVenezuelaOilDeal #WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut (Aug 28) just rewired the market: September rate-hike odds jumped to ~57% — from roughly 35% the prior day (CME FedWatch showed 55.7%; some prints touched 57–58%). A 25bps hike is now the base case, not the tail risk.
Why the repricing:
🗣️ Warsh: inflation at 3.7% PCE is falling "too slowly", there's "more work to do", the 2% target is "firm, fixed" — and forward guidance is dead . No more pre-announcing moves; every data point now hits price directly
📈 The 2Y yield jumped to its highest since July ; the 10Y hit 4.72%
📉 Market reaction: S&P −0.25% (7,711.76), Nasdaq −0.52% (26,402.42), semis hammered ($NVDA −4.6%, $MRVL −10%)
The crypto spillover (ties into #BTCDrops3.4%To$77383):
$BTC slid to a $76,877 low, closing ~$77,557 (−3.39%)~$481M in total liquidations in 24h, $360M+ of it long liquidations — leveraged bulls got caught offside
What to watch:
🔍 August CPI (next week) — decides if ~57% is the new reality or a knee-jerk
📊 Jobs data + ISM Manufacturing PMI (next week) — the first test of the "no guidance" era
📅 Fed meeting Sep 17 — hike, hold, or coin flip? Markets say: flip a coin
#BTCDrops3.4%To$77383 #USShortTermTreasuryYieldsJump #TrumpSaysUSReachedVenezuelaOilDeal #WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus