Two major European banks just shifted hawkish on Fed policy.
Barclays and SocGen now expect rate hikes in September and December—a sharp pivot from the dovish consensus that dominated early 2024.
This matters because:
• Market's priced for cuts or holds
• Inflation data keeps coming in sticky
• Labor market refuses to crack
If they're right, risk assets face serious repricing pressure into year-end. $SPY could see volatility spike as traders unwind rate-cut bets.
Watch the next CPI print closely.
Barclays and SocGen now expect rate hikes in September and December—a sharp pivot from the dovish consensus that dominated early 2024.
This matters because:
• Market's priced for cuts or holds
• Inflation data keeps coming in sticky
• Labor market refuses to crack
If they're right, risk assets face serious repricing pressure into year-end. $SPY could see volatility spike as traders unwind rate-cut bets.
Watch the next CPI print closely.