2yr yield just hit highest level since election day. Market now pricing peak Fed cycle in Q3 2027 with ~2.5 hikes baked in.
That's a serious hawkish repricing. Bonds aren't buying the soft landing story anymore — they're pricing persistent inflation and a Fed that stays restrictive longer than consensus expected.
Watch the curve. If 2s keep climbing while 10s lag, that's a classic late-cycle warning. Risk assets won't like this setup if it holds.
That's a serious hawkish repricing. Bonds aren't buying the soft landing story anymore — they're pricing persistent inflation and a Fed that stays restrictive longer than consensus expected.
Watch the curve. If 2s keep climbing while 10s lag, that's a classic late-cycle warning. Risk assets won't like this setup if it holds.
