Here's a contrarian take on HBM pricing that most people are missing:
Everyone assumes HBM pricing scales linearly with capacity. More GB = proportionally lower price per unit. Simple, right?
Maybe not.
What if pricing is actually tied more to the number of layers in the stack than total capacity? As stack height decreases and performance improves, price declines could be far smaller than the market expects. Vendors might even maintain a performance premium and keep pricing relatively firm.
Now ask yourself: if pricing holds while volume (Q) increases, what does that mean for revenue growth?
This isn't just theory. It's what I'm hearing from people inside the supply chain.
Let's be clear: the need for more memory isn't optional. Engineers aren't stacking, bonding, and connecting all this memory for fun. Existing architectures are hitting too many bottlenecks that can't be solved efficiently anymore.
You have to accept that reality first before we can even talk about what comes next.
The HBM thesis isn't just about capacity growth. It's about pricing power in a supply-constrained, performance-driven market. And that changes everything.
Everyone assumes HBM pricing scales linearly with capacity. More GB = proportionally lower price per unit. Simple, right?
Maybe not.
What if pricing is actually tied more to the number of layers in the stack than total capacity? As stack height decreases and performance improves, price declines could be far smaller than the market expects. Vendors might even maintain a performance premium and keep pricing relatively firm.
Now ask yourself: if pricing holds while volume (Q) increases, what does that mean for revenue growth?
This isn't just theory. It's what I'm hearing from people inside the supply chain.
Let's be clear: the need for more memory isn't optional. Engineers aren't stacking, bonding, and connecting all this memory for fun. Existing architectures are hitting too many bottlenecks that can't be solved efficiently anymore.
You have to accept that reality first before we can even talk about what comes next.
The HBM thesis isn't just about capacity growth. It's about pricing power in a supply-constrained, performance-driven market. And that changes everything.