#OptionsExpiry
đš Bitcoin tests $80,000 before $6.36 billion in options expire
Over 81,000 contracts worth $6.36 billion are expiring today on Deribit. The event could trigger high volatility and put the $BTC rally to a serious test of strength.
đ Key market metrics:
Put/Call Ratio: â 0.85â â Call buyers are in the lead.
Max-Pain: â $69,000â â the level of maximum losses for option buyers (although not necessarily a magnet for the price, dealers can hedge positions in this direction).
Call Concentration: Large volumes are placed at $70kâ75.5k and $78.5kâ80.5k.
â Why is the rally in jeopardy?
1. Short squeeze is dying out: According to QCP Research, a significant portion of BTCâs recent rally from $65k to $81k was driven by a short squeeze. Open interest is falling, and if spot demand doesnât pick up the momentum, the market risks a pullback.
2. Dealer hedging: Holding the price above $80k could trigger additional buying from market makers. However, selling pressure could quickly trigger a reversal with a dip to $75,000 or below.
â ïž Summary: Position locking and option rollovers are creating conditions for a sharp rally in either direction. The most benign scenario is a temporary consolidation in the $75,000-$80,000 range.
đš Bitcoin tests $80,000 before $6.36 billion in options expire
Over 81,000 contracts worth $6.36 billion are expiring today on Deribit. The event could trigger high volatility and put the $BTC rally to a serious test of strength.
đ Key market metrics:
Put/Call Ratio: â 0.85â â Call buyers are in the lead.
Max-Pain: â $69,000â â the level of maximum losses for option buyers (although not necessarily a magnet for the price, dealers can hedge positions in this direction).
Call Concentration: Large volumes are placed at $70kâ75.5k and $78.5kâ80.5k.
â Why is the rally in jeopardy?
1. Short squeeze is dying out: According to QCP Research, a significant portion of BTCâs recent rally from $65k to $81k was driven by a short squeeze. Open interest is falling, and if spot demand doesnât pick up the momentum, the market risks a pullback.
2. Dealer hedging: Holding the price above $80k could trigger additional buying from market makers. However, selling pressure could quickly trigger a reversal with a dip to $75,000 or below.
â ïž Summary: Position locking and option rollovers are creating conditions for a sharp rally in either direction. The most benign scenario is a temporary consolidation in the $75,000-$80,000 range.
