Steep drop from 15yr to 10yr on the curve. That rolldown is real money — 15yr bonds become 10yr bonds, and if the curve holds, you pocket the yield compression. Call it ~6% annualized total return over 5 years with price appreciation baked in.
If AI hype unwinds or deflation becomes the consensus narrative, these bonds will cushion equity pain. The time to hate duration was 2020/2021 when yields were sub-1%. Today at 5%+ with rolldown pushing 6%? You're getting paid to wait.
People who swore off bonds in the ZIRP era are still fighting the last war. The setup has changed. Act accordingly.
If AI hype unwinds or deflation becomes the consensus narrative, these bonds will cushion equity pain. The time to hate duration was 2020/2021 when yields were sub-1%. Today at 5%+ with rolldown pushing 6%? You're getting paid to wait.
People who swore off bonds in the ZIRP era are still fighting the last war. The setup has changed. Act accordingly.
