S&P 500 just tacked on $2.1T in August — literally almost the entire crypto market cap in one month.
When does crypto actually catch up?
We're deep enough into the cycle that risk-on rotation should favor crypto, but TradFi is still hoovering capital. If we're mid-cycle, alts should start outperforming once $BTC consolidates above key resistance and liquidity rotates down the risk curve.
Watch for:
- $BTC holding structure while DXY weakens
- Altcoin beta expanding vs equities
- DeFi TVL climbing as yields compress in TradFi
If we don't see rotation soon, we might be later-cycle than it feels — meaning shorter alt windows and tighter risk management. Position for the catch-up, but don't assume it's automatic.
When does crypto actually catch up?
We're deep enough into the cycle that risk-on rotation should favor crypto, but TradFi is still hoovering capital. If we're mid-cycle, alts should start outperforming once $BTC consolidates above key resistance and liquidity rotates down the risk curve.
Watch for:
- $BTC holding structure while DXY weakens
- Altcoin beta expanding vs equities
- DeFi TVL climbing as yields compress in TradFi
If we don't see rotation soon, we might be later-cycle than it feels — meaning shorter alt windows and tighter risk management. Position for the catch-up, but don't assume it's automatic.