When I first saw this news, I was actually taken aback.
Not because "gold has risen again," but because it has fallen all the way from its high of nearly $5,600 at the beginning of the year, breaking below $4,400 in June, and even briefly dipping below $4,000, before now rebounding.
The trigger was clear: the US July non-farm payroll data unexpectedly showed a decrease of 23,000 jobs, while the market had expected an increase of around 80,000. Expectations of an interest rate hike instantly cooled, the dollar weakened, and gold prices quickly rose.
It rose about 8% in three days, a rapid pace.
But from another perspective, the $4,400 level is not new for gold. It first encountered it at the end of 2025, and also far surpassed it at the beginning of this year. Its return now seems more like a confirmation: after the fall, is the market still willing to give it room to fall?
Many people will immediately say "good news for gold" and "safe-haven demand is back." I don't think it's that simple.
What's truly noteworthy is that it's once again being brought back into the discussion of traditional asset allocation. Central banks are still buying, ETF flows are changing, and with easing interest rate expectations, funds are willing to shift some towards gold.
A 3% or 5% allocation is actually acceptable to many institutions. It allows them to capture some gains during rallies without dragging down their entire portfolio during periods of high volatility.
This is quite similar to the 3% strategy used for Bitcoin previously.
Of course, it's too early to say there's a trend reversal. The rapid short-term rise has resulted in significant profit-taking, and a pullback is possible at any time. Some institutions also believe this is just a technical correction, not a true reversal.
I wouldn't simply categorize this as "gold is going to continue its surge." What I'm more concerned about is whether this back-and-forth traversing key price levels is gradually changing how people perceive gold's role in portfolios.
If in the future we see traditional portfolios with 2%, 3%, or 5% gold considered normal… then gold's market role may be quite different from what it was a few years ago.
If you were to create your own portfolio, would you be willing to buy some gold at the current price level? Or do you feel the volatility is still too high and prefer to wait and see?
$XAU #金价走高
