Treasury yields are hitting levels we haven't seen since the 2008 crisis.
The 30-year just spiked to 5.27% — highest since the financial crisis. The 10-year is at 4.73%, up over 75 basis points since late February when the war started.
What's interesting here is it's not inflation expectations driving this move. It's real yields. 30-year TIPS are back near 3%, also a post-GFC high.
The market is demanding higher real returns. Translation: investors are pricing in fiscal risk — deficits, debt issuance, long-term supply concerns.
This matters because higher real yields make everything else less attractive. Equities, credit, real estate — all competing for capital against risk-free Treasuries now yielding 5%+.
The fiscal picture is no longer background noise. It's becoming a real headwind for risk assets.
If you're positioned in growth or high-multiple names, this is the kind of environment that quietly grinds valuations lower. Not a crash, just a slow repricing as the cost of capital resets higher.
Keep an eye on how equities respond here. The longer yields stay elevated, the more pressure builds across the board.
The 30-year just spiked to 5.27% — highest since the financial crisis. The 10-year is at 4.73%, up over 75 basis points since late February when the war started.
What's interesting here is it's not inflation expectations driving this move. It's real yields. 30-year TIPS are back near 3%, also a post-GFC high.
The market is demanding higher real returns. Translation: investors are pricing in fiscal risk — deficits, debt issuance, long-term supply concerns.
This matters because higher real yields make everything else less attractive. Equities, credit, real estate — all competing for capital against risk-free Treasuries now yielding 5%+.
The fiscal picture is no longer background noise. It's becoming a real headwind for risk assets.
If you're positioned in growth or high-multiple names, this is the kind of environment that quietly grinds valuations lower. Not a crash, just a slow repricing as the cost of capital resets higher.
Keep an eye on how equities respond here. The longer yields stay elevated, the more pressure builds across the board.