đșđž Goldman lifts year-end gold target to $5,400/oz
Goldman Sachs has turned even more bullish on gold, lifting its December 2026 forecast by more than 10% as private investors and central banks double down on bullion as a macro hedge.
â«ïž New target: $5,400/oz vs previous $4,900, supported by âstickierâ hedging against fiscal and monetary policy risks rather than one-off political events
â«ïž Gold is up 70% in 12 months, driven by shifting global power dynamics and renewed attacks on Fed independence, which fuel debasement fears
â«ïž Central banks are expected to buy ~60 tons/month in 2026 as EM reserves structurally rotate into gold
â«ïž Western gold ETFs have added ~500 tons since early 2025, outpacing what rate cuts alone would justify; Goldman still sees another 50 bps of Fed easing in 2026
â«ïž Private demand (HNW physical buying, call options) is now a key pillar of the âdebasement trade,â with risks to the forecast âsignificantly skewed to the upsideâ if policy uncertainty lingers
Goldman warns: a clear improvement in long-term fiscal/monetary credibility could trigger a sharp unwind of these macro hedges. Until then, Wall Streetâs baseline is simple â the wall of money hiding in gold isnât going away anytime soon.
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