My $BTC scenario hasn't changed much. Still, I think we're going to have another jam in the $68-70K zone before the surge after the World Cup finally resolves. Not necessarily right away, but in the coming weeks, my basic scenario is still a move towards medium $40K.
$BTC is no longer just a retail risk asset. Under Trump, US policy is increasingly intertwined with state-level reserve strategy and political image. This changes the character of the market. Political assets can be pushed up for longer than the gaps that fundamentals would normally justify, before marginal demand disappears.
At the same time, the macro background is still not particularly friendly to high beta assets. The GENIUS Act formalizes stablecoins within $USD and the U.S. Treasury system, less supportive of global liquidity, real returns remain positive, and risk assets are ground instead of breaking up. This is not a background that usually produces a clean, sustainable expansion in $BTC.
The on-chain table is more complicated. Long-term keepers continue to absorb supply and liquid floats contract, but the price does not respond in a convincing upward direction. ETF and institutional flows are increasingly two-wayed. This may seem like accumulation, but it can also be structurally a finer market distribution.
So my basic scenario is still the same: $BTC is doing another attempt at $68-70K, late buyers are chasing the break and then the market is losing marginal demand. From there, the greater downward movement develops in the place of collapse in an instant in the following weeks.
Medium $40K is still my target.
Thesis is overridden with a sustainable acceptance above the $70K area
$BTC is no longer just a retail risk asset. Under Trump, US policy is increasingly intertwined with state-level reserve strategy and political image. This changes the character of the market. Political assets can be pushed up for longer than the gaps that fundamentals would normally justify, before marginal demand disappears.
At the same time, the macro background is still not particularly friendly to high beta assets. The GENIUS Act formalizes stablecoins within $USD and the U.S. Treasury system, less supportive of global liquidity, real returns remain positive, and risk assets are ground instead of breaking up. This is not a background that usually produces a clean, sustainable expansion in $BTC.
The on-chain table is more complicated. Long-term keepers continue to absorb supply and liquid floats contract, but the price does not respond in a convincing upward direction. ETF and institutional flows are increasingly two-wayed. This may seem like accumulation, but it can also be structurally a finer market distribution.
So my basic scenario is still the same: $BTC is doing another attempt at $68-70K, late buyers are chasing the break and then the market is losing marginal demand. From there, the greater downward movement develops in the place of collapse in an instant in the following weeks.
Medium $40K is still my target.
Thesis is overridden with a sustainable acceptance above the $70K area
