#BTC

1. Pre-Halving period

Approximately 77 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024

Historically, any deeper retraces that occur during this orange period tend to generate fantastic Return On Investment for investors in the several months after the Halving

Generally, any retrace during this period likely represents one of the final bargain-buying opportunities for Bitcoin in the Pre-Halving period

In fact, Bitcoin performed a -18% retrace this January already

Was that the retrace that historically tends to occur during this period?

In any case, there is now a rapidly shrinking 14-day window where if Bitcoin is to perform another pullback...

It should do over the next two weeks, between now and the Pre-Halving rally which we'll discuss next

2. Pre-Halving rally

With the orange Pre-Halving period slowly coming to a close with only 14 days left...

Bitcoin is slowly getting ready to transition into the Pre-Halving rally phase

Approximately ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)

In anticipation of the Halving, investors "Buy the Hype" in an effort to "Sell the News"

Short-term traders and speculators "Buy The Hype" several weeks before the Halving in anticipation of making a profit from this hype-fuelled rally

Then these speculators "Sell The News" to realise that profit, contributing to a Pre-Halving retrace which occurs only a handful of weeks before the Halving event itself

3. Pre-Halving retrace

After the Pre-Halving Rally has concluded...

A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a couple of weeks before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)

In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep

In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep

This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks, making investors question whether the Halving was a bullish catalyst on price after all

4. Re-Accumulation

The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)

This period can last up to 150 days (i.e 5 months)

Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving

5. Parabolic Uptrend

Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)

It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new All Time Highs

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