truflation

Warsh puts inflation math back on the table

On July 1, Warsh said inflation risks have come down.
The Fed is not cutting rates yet, but markets are already leaning into a softer path. Early risk-on usually starts this way: expectations move before the actual policy move.
⚙️ What the Fed is reviewing
After the June 17 FOMC, Warsh talked about reviewing how the Fed reads the economy and inflation.
On the table: Fed projections, market communication, data collection, inflation frameworks, and the way inflation itself is measured.
Old surveys, national accounts, and delayed data are losing value in a 2026 economy. The Fed wants more real-time data, private sources, and better analytical tools.
📉 Official May CPI: 4.2%
Truflation on June 30: 1.91%
Old data still shows heat. Faster data already shows cooling.
🧭 Why markets care
The Fed no longer wants to pre-commit on the next rate move: hold, cut, or hike.
The decision will be built closer to the meeting, using fresh inflation, expectations, labor market, oil, dollar, and yields.
If the new approach shows lower inflation risk, markets will price rate cuts faster.
📌 Next checkpoints
July 14 — Warsh in Congress
July 28–29 — FOMC
For crypto, this is about the dollar, yields, and liquidity.
BTC reads the shift in expectations first. Alts follow only if the risk bid holds.

#fomc #warsh #cpi #truflation $BTC $ETH $SOL