nfp

The US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls, NFP) measures the net change in the number of employed people across the economy, including the private and public sectors. This means it also includes government employees, even those who were previously laid off during a government shutdown and later rehired.
However, this report can be misleading or inflated from an analytical perspective. The NFP counts all net changes in employment, not only genuinely new jobs created by economic growth. For example, if government workers were fired during a shutdown and then hired back, they are counted again as “new jobs” in the monthly statistics.
This signal is very bullish for crypto in the medium to long term.
In other words, the report does not distinguish between:
1. Real new job creation driven by economic expansion,
2. Temporary layoffs and rehires,
3. Job rotations, seasonal hiring, or contract work.
Because of this methodology, the headline number can appear stronger than the underlying economic reality. The labor market report often reflects statistical adjustments and employment normalization, rather than pure organic job growth.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The opinions expressed are personal and based on publicly available data. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Nonfarm Payrolls may revive Gold rally, further grind the Greenback

The story

Special warmup – All eyes are on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to be published today, Wednesday, an unusual timing for this indicator. That is the result of the short-lived government shutdown. Events preceding this publication were also abnormal: White House advisor Kevin Hassett signaled that figures would be weak, lowering expectations. Recent economic numbers have shown atrophy in the world’s largest economy, with the latest Retail Sales data showing the index remained flat in December 2025.
Why it matters
Lost muscle reflex – Our economic calendar points to a gain of 70K job positions last month, but Hassett’s words paint a darker outcome. While he lost the race to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed), Hassett retained his high-ranking job, which gives him early access to the data.

A negative number would have political implications, such as populist policies to curb firings, or blaming foreigners and slapping tariffs. Moreover, it would dampen expectations for global growth, even if the slowdown is not only the result of lower immigration to the US, but also AI – a source of productivity and economic expansion.
What’s next

Shake-out – A soft, yet positive headline NFP would boost Stocks and Gold while weakening the US Dollar, as it would cement a lower path of interest rates. However, a negative outcome could already trigger losses for major indices and revive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Gold would still benefit.

The Unemployment Rate – expected unchanged at 4.4% – is also important, as the Fed targets it as one of its two mandates.
$USDC
#NFP