cryptonewss

By mid-February 2026, Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a highly unstable phase, with sharp swings in price and mixed signals from the market.
Although Bitcoin has recovered to about $70,318, gaining 2.23% in one day, it is still down by 26% in the past month, showing how severe the recent drop has been.
This fall has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 13, a level called “Extreme Fear,” which reflects strong panic among investors.
Despite this fear, Bitcoin is still dominating the crypto market, holding nearly 59% of the total market value.
Mixed Bitcoin dynamics
At the same time, large investors are slowly returning.
After big money flowed out earlier in the week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $15.1 million in new inflows on 13th February, suggesting that institutions may be buying again.
On the technical side, Bitcoin’s network is also changing. For the first time in years, both mining difficulty and hashrate are falling.

This means some miners are shutting down because rising costs and lower prices are making it hard to stay profitable. This phase is often called miner capitulation.
Overall, the market is caught between fear from small investors and quiet buying from big players.
While short-term charts still show uncertainty, major Wall Street banks are now focusing on long-term buying rather than short-term price moves.
J.P. Morgan’s long-term bet
Seeing the current market dynamics, J.P. Morgan has lowered Bitcoin’s estimated “price floor” (the cost to produce one Bitcoin) from $90,000 to $77,000.
This change happened mainly because mining difficulty fell by about 15%, many high-cost mining operations shut down, and severe winter storms in the U.S., especially in Texas, disrupted mining activity.
Yet, despite these challenges and adjustments, J.P. Morgan expects Bitcoin to reach $266,000 in 2026.
This confidence is based on hopes that the CLARITY Act will pass, making it easier for large institutions to invest in crypto.
This followed the bank’s building its own crypto systems. Through its Kinexys unit, it is expanding its digital dollar token and preparing to offer crypto custody services for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs, which once criticized Bitcoin, has now also added major digital assets to its portfolio. 
What does this mean for investors?
All this is because the banks believe new regulations will make crypto safer and more attractive for large investors.
Interestingly, the Donald Trump administration is strongly supporting the CLARITY Act.
Patrick Witt, who works with the White House on digital assets, said the goal is to pass the law before the November 2026 midterm elections.
However, the bill is moving slowly in the Senate. 
Now, whether the CLARITY Act passes soon or later in 2026, crypto in the U.S. is moving away from a wild west phase and toward a more regulated, bank-supported system.
Final Summary
Bitcoin is going through a major test phase, with high volatility and strong fear among small investors.Falling mining difficulty and hashrate point to miner capitulation, which often happens during major market resets.
#cryptooinsigts #JPMorgan #CryptoNewss

Prediction markets should shift to hedging, says Vitalik Buterin
Prediction markets are skewed toward short-term bets rather than real risk transfer. vitalik buterin argues their design should prioritize hedging household and business exposures over speculation.
A review of public commentary and coverage indicates his concerns focus on structural incentives. Without mechanisms to preserve yield on posted collateral, hedgers face a persistent cost-of-capital penalty that traders may ignore.
Why it matters: prediction markets hedging needs interest-bearing collateral
The missing feature is interest-bearing collateral that preserves yield while positions are open. According to the Block, Buterin views current designs as unattractive because participants forgo steady yields, around low single-digit APY on dollar assets, to take event exposure.
“Prediction markets are very unappealing for hedging because they fail to offer interest on collateral,” said Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co-founder.
Treating these markets as risk-transfer infrastructure implies collateral should earn while locked, with transparent accrual and clear segregation of risk. Yale School of Management commentary has also warned that thin liquidity and manipulation risks can distort signals, which matter more when users are hedging rather than gambling.
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Immediate impact: U.S. CFTC regulation and platform choices
U.S. event contracts face active scrutiny, which shapes what can list and how retail users participate. Stocktwits’ coverage notes rising U.S. regulatory attention, reinforcing the need for products framed as hedges for real-world exposures rather than wagers.
Business Insider has reported growing investor interest in event-risk markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, reflecting demand to hedge discrete outcomes within different U.S. regulatory pathways. The practical takeaway is that market design and compliance positioning will likely determine which platforms facilitate bona fide risk transfer.
At the time of writing, Gnosis (GNO) traded near $134.17 with 8.99% realized volatility, an RSI of 57.49, and 16 green days in the past 30. The 50- and 200-day simple moving averages stood around 132.24 and 129.14, respectively.
Blueprint: AI baskets and fiat-independent settlement for risk-transfer
Buterin’s proposed direction reframes prediction venues as tools for stabilizing everyday costs and balance sheets. Blockonomi reported he outlined AI-driven baskets and fiat-independent mechanisms so end users can transfer risk without being captive to bank rails or local currency frictions.
Interest-bearing collateral and yield preservation
A hedging-first design embeds interest-bearing collateral so users don’t surrender baseline yield to obtain coverage. Net cost then reflects only the event premium and basis risk, not the foregone return on cash-like assets.
Yield preservation requires auditable accrual and bankruptcy-remote segregation, so collateral income and event PnL are distinct. This structure improves capital efficiency and lowers the hurdle rate for households and firms to hedge.
AI-personalized baskets for expense hedging
AI can map a user’s expense profile to a diversified set of event contracts representing key risks: inflation, energy, policy, and regulatory outcomes. Blockonomi notes the aim is fiat-independent settlement and automated construction, so consumers receive tailored, composable protection.
Investing.com has highlighted that portfolios struggle with story-driven, discrete event risk, which these baskets directly target. Careful market selection, liquidity checks, and outcome definitions remain essential to avoid fragmented or illiquid exposures.
FAQ about prediction markets hedging
How would interest-bearing collateral make prediction markets more attractive for hedging real-world risks?
It preserves yield on posted collateral, turning the total cost into just the event premium instead of premium plus foregone interest.
Which platforms currently support event-risk hedging and how do they fit within U.S. CFTC regulation?
Business Insider notes investors use venues like Kalshi and Polymarket; each aligns differently with U.S. CFTC oversight and permissible event contracts.
#cpi #CryptoNewss #ETH #Binance

🤖 AI Bomb Incoming
Elon Musk revealed that Grok 4.2 from xAI is launching next week — and insiders say it’s a major leap over 4.1.
Because Musk’s AI projects often connect with tech platforms and exchanges, markets are watching closely for ripple effects.
⚠️ Bitcoin Faces a Future Threat
Investor Nic Carter warned:
If quantum-resistant security isn’t implemented soon, institutions like BlackRock could pressure control over Bitcoin development.
Translation: The battle for Bitcoin’s future may move from developers → corporations.
💳 AI Will Soon Shop For You
PayPal bought Cymbio for $150-200M to enter Agentic Commerce — where AI agents purchase products automatically.
Competition is now forming between Stripe and OpenAI protocols to control the future of online transactions.
📊 Market Shift — Ethereum Whales Moving
Ethereum reclaimed $2,000 but momentum is uncertain:
🐋 One whale turned a $3.5M loss into $2.48M profit while holding a massive long
🐋 An early holder moved 14,183 ETH ($42M) to Coinbase after buying at $12 years ago
🐋 Another whale bought 8,000 ETH from Binance and supplied it to Aave
📉 Mixed signals = volatility ahead.
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$ETH

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