The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4%.

What surprised me was not the hike.

It was Bitcoin's reaction.

BTC barely moved after the decision while Ethereum stayed almost flat. Solana and BNB saw small declines while XRP fell more than 2%.

That tells me the market had already done most of its repricing before the announcement.

Around 90% odds of a hike were already priced in before the meeting.

So the real information was somewhere else.

The Fed's projections now point toward another possible 25 basis point increase before the end of 2026.

Even more important is the inflation outlook.

The Fed expects inflation around 3.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The return to the 2% target is still expected to take longer.

That changes how I look at the crypto setup.

Bitcoin does not necessarily need rate cuts to rise.

But when borrowing costs stay high and investors can earn more from cash and government bonds the hurdle for allocating capital into volatile assets becomes higher.

This is especially important for altcoins.

BTC can sometimes absorb tighter liquidity because of its larger market and deeper liquidity.

Smaller assets usually need stronger capital flows to keep their moves going.

There is another detail I would watch.

The Fed said consumer spending and business investment remain resilient while the labor market is still close to full employment.

That gives policymakers more room to keep rates elevated while they focus on inflation.

So I would not read the lack of an immediate crypto selloff as a bullish signal by itself.

The market simply did not get a surprise.

Now comes the harder part.

Can crypto keep attracting spot demand while rates remain around 4% and another hike stays on the table?

If BTC holds its key support while liquidity remains tight then the market is showing genuine resilience.

But if yields rise and spot demand starts weakening then leverage can turn a small pullback into something much larger.

For me the Fed decision is not the end of the story.

The hike was expected.

The important part is how long the market has to live with these rates.

Bitcoin did not panic today.

Now it has to prove it can keep holding up without the liquidity tailwind traders were hoping for.