90% of US banks are pricing in 2-3 rate hikes by EOY. Only Jefferson's penciling a December cut.
Tonight's hike is basically locked. Not hiking would spook markets harder than the hike itself.
Real alpha: what happens AFTER. If Fed signals "one and done" that's dovish vs market expectations. But 2-3 cuts by year end? That's the positioning game.
Markets are front-running dovish pivots. If Fed stays hawkish longer than priced, $BTC and risk assets get wrecked short-term. If they fold faster, we moon.
Watch the dot plot and Powell's tone. That's your liquidity roadmap for Q4.
Tonight's hike is basically locked. Not hiking would spook markets harder than the hike itself.
Real alpha: what happens AFTER. If Fed signals "one and done" that's dovish vs market expectations. But 2-3 cuts by year end? That's the positioning game.
Markets are front-running dovish pivots. If Fed stays hawkish longer than priced, $BTC and risk assets get wrecked short-term. If they fold faster, we moon.
Watch the dot plot and Powell's tone. That's your liquidity roadmap for Q4.