There are weeks when the market and macroeconomics tell two opposing stories. This is one of them.
On the one hand: the total crypto market capitalization has rebounded 3% to reach $2.77 trillion, with BTC around $78,000, ETH above $2,500, and the Fear & Greed index stuck at 69—right in the "Greed" zone. RWA tokens and tokenized assets are leading the way.
On the other hand: according to the CME's FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike at the end of the meeting has risen to 92.5%, compared to 69.4% last Friday. A hike. Not a cut. With oil prices pushed higher by tensions in the Middle East and a strong dollar, financial conditions are tightening—and historically, that's not good for risky assets.
Levels I'm watching:
Major support: the $77,000 zone. The daily 20-day EMA is around $77,071—a weekly close below would turn the August breakout into a simple squeeze rather than a trend reversal.
Resistance: $80,000 first, then $82,600. A daily close above $82,656 would open the way to $91,719.
The detail no one is looking at: Binance alone has about $3 billion of liquidable long leverage below the price, compared to $1.8 billion of short leverage above. Translation: a small drop can trigger a big one.
What this means in practical terms: the market is long, confident, and riding on a macroeconomic catalyst it doesn't control. This isn't a sell signal. It's a position sizing signal.
Add to that the US political agenda—a House committee is examining a bill on a Bitcoin strategic reserve today—and you have a week where two opposing pieces of news can break within six hours.
My plan: I don't make any decisions until the weekly close. Leverage waits. Cash waits. The market will reward those who know how to do nothing for 48 hours.
So, are you playing the rebound or waiting for the Fed? 👇
This is not financial advice. DYOR.
#BTC #Fed #CryptoMarkets #tradingStrategy #BinanceSquare
$AAPLB
