🚨 It broke through the $76,500 support level during trading and fell as low as $76,459. It has now rebounded to around $76.6K, but as open interest is rising again, the downside risk has increased slightly.
Overall signal: Long 40% / Short 60% — shorts dominate. As of 20:24 KST on 13 September, Binance BTCUSDT stands at approximately $76,661 on the spot market and approximately $76,631 on the futures market. The 24-hour low was $76,458.9 and the high was $77,477. We view the current decline as a mixed downtrend driven by a combination of spot selling and an increase in leveraged positions.
Changes compared to the previous hour: For futures contracts settled between 19:00 and 20:00, the price moved from $76,766 to $76,644 (-0.16%), whilst Open Interest (OI) remained virtually unchanged at 104.61K → 104.63K BTC (+0.02%). However, as OI rose again to 104.79K BTC at 20:00, the price briefly fell to $76,459. Funding rates are low at +0.0054% over 8 hours, so the market is not in a state of long overheating. The top traders’ positions stand at 69.1% long / 30.9% short, indicating a continued heavy bias towards long positions; should the price dip further, there is scope for further liquidation of long positions. ADL risk remains LOW.
The three most important indicators: Firstly, an attempt to break below $76.5K coupled with a renewed increase in Open Interest (OI). Secondly, in the spot market, the current market price buy-to-sell ratio stands at approximately 46% to 54% in favour of sellers, so it is difficult to view this movement as having been driven solely by futures shorts. Thirdly, external liquidity has not yet improved. The US spot BTC ETF recorded a net outflow of -$13.2M on the most recent trading day, 11 September, and a total net outflow of approximately -$462.7M between 8 and 11 September, whilst the total stablecoin market capitalisation stands at $305.26B, down 0.06% over the past seven days. USDT stands at $183.48B, whilst USDC is at $74.40B.
Whale positions: Whales tracked by Hyperliquid currently hold long positions of $727.2M (46%) / short positions of $859.3M (54%). Compared to the previous figures of approximately $709M long and $833M short, both positions have increased; however, the short position rose by approximately $26M, which was greater than the increase of approximately $18M in the long position. 0xe2ad…3c8c is currently confirmed to hold a 20x short position of approximately $84.45M, with an average cost basis of $77,888, a liquidation price of approximately $86,946, and unrealised profits of approximately +$1.28M. As the short position has grown slightly and the average cost has fallen marginally compared to the previous period, there is potential for further shorting, though not on a large scale. Conversely, the 40x short position held by 0x396d…5899 has a liquidation price of approximately $77,983, which could trigger a short squeeze should the price recover to $78K.
The options market is not yet entirely bearish. Deribit’s BTC options open interest stands at approximately $32.04B, with a put/call ratio of 0.56, indicating a higher volume of calls, whilst the ‘Max Pain’ for key expiries is $72K. On-chain public exchange balances stand at 1.48 million BTC, up 0.13% over 24 hours; Binance holds 643,483 BTC, up 0.03%, indicating a slight increase in potential selling supply. Miners have been treated as neutral as there is no reliable new hourly data available at this time.
Macro: Whilst the US markets are closed for the weekend, the 10-year yield stood at 4.93% on the last trading day, having risen to 4.979% during the session; the probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike is approximately 86%, and the DXY stood at 99.12. August CPI was up 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. With a new attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz occurring today, the Monday oil price → inflation → interest rate trajectory remains a major external risk for BTC.
Next key price levels: $76,500 is currently the key pivot point. If the 1-hour candle consolidates below $76.5K and open interest continues to rise, we will monitor the sequence $76,000 → $75,500. Conversely, if $76.5K holds and $77,000 is regained, it becomes highly likely that this pullback was a false break following some long liquidation. A strong confirmation of an upward reversal would be at $77,300–77,500.
Longs dominate 40% / Shorts dominate 60%. I increased short exposure by 2% at 42:58. Put simply: “$76.5K has been breached once, there is selling pressure in the spot market, and open interest is rising again. Whilst a crash is not yet confirmed, the short side currently holds the advantage. Whether $76.5K is recaptured will be the key focus over the next hour.”
The 40:60 ratio is not an actual probability of future outcomes, but rather an estimate that quantifies the direction and strength of current price, open interest, funding rates, spot supply and demand, ETFs, liquidity, whales, options and macroeconomic factors.
🚨 BTC long liquidations totalling approximately $14.4M have occurred in the last hour. However, the price has recovered to $76,500, and we are now seeing attempts at a rebound rather than a further sharp decline.
Overall signal: Longs 43% / Shorts 57% — Shorts still dominate, but the situation has improved slightly compared to earlier. Around 21:23 KST, Binance BTCUSDT was trading at approximately $76.8K, with an OI of 104.84K BTC (approximately $8.05B) and funding at +0.0061% over 8 hours. Although the funding rate is positive, it is not at overheated levels.
Changes compared to the previous hour: The futures price for the 20:00–21:00 contract settled at $76,644 → $76,753 (+0.14%), whilst the spot price rebounded from $76,677 to $76,792 (+0.15%). During the same period, Open Interest (OI) increased from 104.63K to 104.86K BTC (+0.21%), whilst the proportion of spot market buy orders stood at approximately 52.5%. In other words, whilst there was some actual spot buying behind this rebound, new leveraged positions were also opened. It is still too early to view this as a completely healthy, spot-led rally.
The three most important indicators: ① Retaining the $76.5K level is positive. However, it is difficult to view this as a trend reversal until the $77K level is recaptured. ② The recent one-hour liquidations of approximately $14.42M were almost entirely long positions. 24-hour BTC liquidations stand at $26.45M, 88% of which are long positions. That said, the 24-hour liquidation volume itself is only 0.27 times the average over the last seven days, so the market as a whole is not in a state of panic. ③ Among top traders on Binance, positions remain 69.1% long / 30.9% short, indicating significant long-side concentration. If the price breaks below $76.5K again, these long positions could become a burden once more.
ETFs and liquidity remain weak. There were no new trades in US spot BTC ETFs over the weekend; the latest figure as of 11 September shows a net outflow of -$13.2M, whilst the total for 8–11 September was -$462.7M. The total stablecoin market capitalisation stands at $305.26B, down 0.01% over the past day, 0.06% over the past seven days, and up 1.56% over the past 30 days; USDT accounts for $183.49B and USDC for $74.40B. In other words, whilst there is no sign of a strong inflow of new capital at present, liquidity has improved slightly on a monthly basis.
Whale positions: The Hyperliquid BTC whales tracked by CoinBoss currently hold $730.5M long (46%) / $860.1M short (54%), with short positions continuing to dominate. Compared to the previous check, longs have increased by approximately $3.3M and shorts by approximately $0.8M; this time, the increase in longs was actually greater. 0xe2ad…3c8c holds a 20x BTC short position of approximately $84.31M, with an average entry price of $77,888, a liquidation price of $87,045, and unrealised profits of approximately +$1.42M. The position size has decreased slightly since the previous check, and no significant additional short positions have been identified. Furthermore, the short position of approximately $24.6M held by 0x396d…5899 has a liquidation price of $77,982; therefore, if BTC approaches $78K, there could be some significant short-side pressure.
Options are providing some cushion against a decline. Deribit’s BTC options open interest stands at approximately $32.33B, with a put/call ratio of 0.56, indicating more calls; the ‘Max Pain’ for the key 25 September expiry is $72K. The market is not currently betting on an extreme downturn.
Macroeconomic factors remain a concern. On the last US trading day, the 10-year yield rose to 4.9915 per cent during the session, nearing 5 per cent, whilst expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike stand at around 85–87 per cent. The DXY is also at around 99.1. In particular, following today’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, reports have emerged suggesting that if the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline is prolonged, up to 4 per cent of global supply could be at risk. Whether oil prices surge on Monday will be crucial for BTC.
Next key price levels: On the downside, these are again $76,500 → $76,000 → $75,500. On the upside, the levels are $77,000 → $77,300 → $77,500–78,000. In particular, a recovery to $77K, coupled with increased spot buying and no surge in Open Interest (OI), would significantly boost confidence in a rebound. Conversely, a retest of $76.5K combined with rising OI could push short dominance back above 60 per cent.
Long dominance: 43 per cent / Short dominance: 57 per cent. We have raised the long position by 3 per cent from the previous 40:60 ratio. Put simply, “Long positions took a significant hit, but buying pressure has returned at $76.5K. However, the environment regarding ETFs, whales, interest rates and oil prices remains unfavourable, and leverage is building up again, so the short side still holds a slight advantage for now.”
The 43:57 ratio is not an actual probability of future outcomes, but rather an estimate that quantifies the direction and strength of current indicators.