Kevin Warsh isn't freshly sworn in, he's been chair since 22 May and just marked 100 days in the job today. So the real question isn't "will he take over," it's what he does from here, which is exactly what today's testing. Here's his track record so far, and it's a pattern. His actual nomination back in January triggered a 14% $BTC selloff, priced as the worst-case hawkish outcome. In June, his first meeting as chair, he scrapped forward guidance completely, no more hints about what's coming, and held rates steady, killing the rate-cut story the whole 2026 bull case leaned on. All this despite being personally about as crypto-friendly as a Fed chair gets, he's invested in Bitwise, the firm behind a spot Bitcoin ETF, and once called Bitcoin "your new gold" on CNBC. Liking Bitcoin personally clearly doesn't mean running policy that helps it. Today he did it again. Sat in the middle of the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh said inflation is still job one and money isn't tight enough yet to ease off. Yields ticked up, $BTC slipped under $80,000. Nothing dramatic, more like air being let out slowly. So what could actually make or break it from here? September's FOMC meeting is the real fork. Warsh has floated the idea that AI productivity gains make room to cut without reigniting inflation, if he leans into that, the rate-cut trade comes back to life. If he keeps reciting "inflation first" like today, expect more of this same slow drag. The chart backs that up. $78,000 has held all week, stay above it and $BTC gets another shot at $81,000, the 50-week average that's already rejected it once. Lose $78,000 and $76,000 is next. NFA #BTC Price Analysis#