🇺🇸TGA (Treasury General Account) is essentially the U.S. government’s main bank account at the Federal Reserve. It currently holds around $940–950 billion. The U.S. Treasury is now trying to support the long-term Treasury market. It has already decided to double the size of its long-term bond buyback operations, from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, starting in September. And now there is information that these buybacks could be financed using almost $1 trillion sitting in the TGA. Treasury → buys its own long-term bonds from the market → demand for bonds ↑ → bond prices ↑ → yields ↓ 🪙So what Bitcoin and fancy crypto alts?? 🟢 SCENARIO #1 — BULLISH FOR BTC If the Treasury actually uses the TGA to buy Treasuries: TGA ↓ → money leaves the Treasury’s account → liquidity conditions in the financial system improve → yields ↓ → financial conditions ease → risk assets ↑ And that could have a positive effect on Bitcoin. Especially if we see: 10Y yield ↓ + DXY ↓ + liquidity ↑ + Fed becomes more dovish → that would create a very favorable environment for BTC and altcoins. But we should not automatically call this QE. It is not the same thing as the Federal Reserve printing money and buying assets. 🔴 SCENARIO #2 If the government spends hundreds of billions from the TGA, but: 10Y yield remains high that would suggest the problem is much deeper. The market may still be demanding a high premium because of: • massive U.S. debt; • still inflation risks; • huge future borrowing needs; • fiscal deficit; TGA ↓ NOT automatically BTC ↑. TGA ↓ + Yields ↓ + DXY ↓ = THAT is a genuinely bullish liquidity setup. $BTC