$BTC Macroeconomy Weekly Outlook☕️

Weekly Bias: 🟩Bullish with Pullback Risks | Strong bullish trend intact with ADX confirming strength. RSI at 79.86 overbought, TD Sequential at 7 Up suggesting near-term exhaustion. Key catalysts this week: Consumer Confidence, GDP, PCE, Jackson Hole Symposium, and Jobless Claims.

Monday, 24 Aug: 🟩 Green. No major US data. Markets continue to digest the Treasury buyback narrative and yen weakness. Weekend consolidation gives way to continued institutional accumulation.

Monday is a data-light session with no high-impact releases. The fundamental narrative from the previous week remains intact: the Treasury buyback is money printing, Japan's rising CPI forces UST selling, and the dollar weakens. BlackRock inflows remain strong. The technicals are overbought but the trend is strong. Expect a green start with a push towards 78k, though liquidity is thin and profit-taking may emerge.

Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $76,000~$78,500

Direction: 🟩Bullish

Tuesday, 25 Aug: 🟩🟡 Green with Wick. CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC forecast at 90.3 from 90.8 previous, a slight drop. New Home Sales forecast at 620K from 628K previous, a drop. Both are dovish signals that weaken the DXY and support Bitcoin. However, teacher warns that Blackrock may sell into strength, creating a wick.

Tuesday is Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales day. Both data points are expected to cool, which is dollar-negative and Bitcoin-positive. The consumer is showing signs of cracking, which reinforces the Fed pivot narrative. However, the market is heavily overbought, and profit-taking is likely. Expect a green candle but with a significant upper wick as institutions take profits. The range will be wide.

Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $76,500~$79,500

Direction: 🟩Bullish (Wick)

Wednesday, 26 Aug: 🟥 Red. GDP (QoQ) Q2 at 12:30 UTC forecast at 1.5% from 1.5% previous, flat. Core PCE Price Index (YoY) forecast at 3.3% from 3.3% previous, flat. Core PCE (MoM) forecast at 0.2% from 0.1% previous, a rise. Personal Spending forecast at 0.1% from 0.3% previous, a drop. Durable Goods Orders forecast at 0.5% from 0.5% previous, flat. Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30 UTC forecast at 4.405M from 4.405M previous, flat.

Wednesday is the heaviest data day of the week. The Core PCE MoM is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%, a hawkish signal that gives the Fed an excuse to stay hawkish. GDP is flat, Personal Spending is cooling, but the Core PCE rise is the dominant catalyst. The market may interpret this as stubborn inflation, pressuring Bitcoin. Teacher predicts a drop on Wednesday. Crude inventories are massive and confirm weak consumption, adding to the bearish narrative. Expect a red day with a pullback towards 75k.

Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $74,500~$77,000

Direction: 🟥Bearish

Thursday, 27 Aug: 🟩 Green. Jackson Hole Symposium begins. Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC forecast at 208K from 206K previous, a rise. Goods Trade Balance forecast at -99.90B from -101.41B previous, an improvement. Tokyo Core CPI at 23:30 UTC forecast at 1.8% from 1.7% previous, a rise.

Thursday is Jackson Hole day. The symposium is a gathering of central bankers, and any dovish rhetoric will be bullish for Bitcoin. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise, a dovish labour signal. Tokyo Core CPI rising is a yen-weakening signal that supports risk assets. Teacher predicts Bitcoin will rise on Thursday after Wednesday's dip. Expect a recovery towards 77k.

Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $75,000~$77,500

Direction: 🟩Bullish

Friday, 28 Aug: 🟩🟡 Green with Caution. Jackson Hole continues. Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC forecast at 57.8 from 57.6 previous, a slight beat. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations at 14:00 UTC forecast at 4.3% from 4.3% previous, flat. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 14:00 UTC forecast at 51.0 from 51.0 previous, flat. Fed Governor Warish speaks at 14:00 UTC. Baker Hughes rig counts at 17:00 UTC.

Friday is the final day of Jackson Hole. The data is mixed but largely neutral. Chicago PMI is expected to beat slightly, a green signal that could cap the upside. Michigan sentiment is flat. The key catalyst is Fed Governor Warish's speech. If he sounds dovish, Bitcoin will rally. If hawkish, expect a dump. Teacher predicts Bitcoin will rise unless war breaks out. The weekend war premium is the wildcard. Expect a pump on dovish rhetoric, followed by profit-taking into the weekend.

Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $76,000~$79,000

Direction: 🟩Bullish (War Risk)

Saturday, August 29

Analysis: Jackson Hole Symposium continues. Weekend. No major data. Geopolitical headlines (War Premium) may emerge. It is advisable to not trade on weekend, rest well and have fun with family and friends.

Prediction: Bitcoin slow with range $76,500~$78,000 because no institution movement.

Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️

Sunday, August 30

Analysis: Japanese Industrial Production at 23:50 UTC forecast at 1.9% from 1.3% previous, a beat. Weekend is generally slow. It is advisable to not trade on weekend, rest well and have fun with family and friends.

Prediction: Bitcoin slow with range $76,500~$78,000 because low liquidity.

Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️

Bias: The structural bull case remains intact. The Treasury buyback, yen weakness, and Fed pivot narrative are strong. However, RSI at 79.86 and TD Sequential at 7 Up indicate that a pullback is healthy and overdue. Wednesday's Core PCE MoM rise could trigger that pullback to 75k. The overall trend is bullish, and dips should be bought. Jackson Hole is likely to reinforce the dovish pivot narrative, providing a catalyst for the next leg higher towards 80k. Risk management is key.

#NFA #DYOR 🔥

Not a futures signal🛑

$ETH $BNB #AnthropicIPOCouldTopSpaceXRecordReportsSay #NvidiaAIServerPricesRiseOver15% #BSTREndsCantorSPACGoPublicPlan #USCanadaTradeTalksCollapseCanadaVowsRetaliation