Bitfinex Alpha said Bitcoin is showing mid-to-late bear market characteristics, with the price trading between the long-term realized price of $52,699 and the short-term holder realized price of $67,176. The realized price median near $63,200 has provided support over the past two weeks, while a break below that level could put the June low of $57,803 back in focus. Bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen to levels last seen in early 2019, while onchain transfer velocity has dropped to a seven-year low, indicating subdued liquidity and market activity.

Bitfinex Alpha noted that although U.S. inflation data have softened, financial conditions have eased and equities have reached record highs, those tailwinds have yet to translate into crypto markets. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $385.2 million in weekly net outflows, while stablecoin supply has fallen about 4.5% from its May peak to $300.7 billion, suggesting that incremental liquidity has yet to return. The key indicators to watch are a recovery in ETF inflows and renewed growth in stablecoin supply.