THE "STH CAPITULATION" CHART EVERYONE POSTS HAS A BLIND SPOT - IT CANNOT SEE STH SELLING
This week every feed showed the same green chart: Short-Term Holder supply collapsing, labeled "pure panic selling", labeled bullish. We rebuilt the metric from our own UTXO ledger - every coin's birth and death since 2009 - and found something better than an opinion: an accounting identity.
Change in STH supply = old-coin spending + new issuance - maturation. Residual: 0.000000 BTC, every single day since 2009.
Notice what is missing: young-coin selling. When a short-term holder sells, his coin leaves the STH bucket - and instantly re-enters it as a freshly moved coin. It enters the ledger twice with opposite signs and cancels. The coefficient on "STH panic selling" in this metric is exactly zero. Not small. Zero.
The last 90 days in numbers:
- Gross STH turnover: 68,026,905 BTC moved - with zero effect on the level
- Maturation (coins that simply sat past 155 days): -1,619,944 BTC
- Old hands handing coins back: +1,203,677 BTC
- New issuance net of fees: +38,177 BTC
- Net change of the level: -378,090 BTC
So the level is falling for the least dramatic reason possible: coins are sitting still. Maturation runs at its 91.9th percentile - near record. Actual STH turnover sits at its 40th percentile - an ordinary day at the office. If this were "pure panic", turnover would be in the top tail. It is not.
One more twist: across 4,882 rolling windows, MORE young-coin selling correlates with a RISING level (Spearman +0.231) - the opposite of what the label implies.
The chart is real. The label is not. Next time a green area screams panic, ask what it actually counts.
Data: own UTXO ledger, max divergence vs our published series build 0.05 BTC. NFA.
This week every feed showed the same green chart: Short-Term Holder supply collapsing, labeled "pure panic selling", labeled bullish. We rebuilt the metric from our own UTXO ledger - every coin's birth and death since 2009 - and found something better than an opinion: an accounting identity.
Change in STH supply = old-coin spending + new issuance - maturation. Residual: 0.000000 BTC, every single day since 2009.
Notice what is missing: young-coin selling. When a short-term holder sells, his coin leaves the STH bucket - and instantly re-enters it as a freshly moved coin. It enters the ledger twice with opposite signs and cancels. The coefficient on "STH panic selling" in this metric is exactly zero. Not small. Zero.
The last 90 days in numbers:
- Gross STH turnover: 68,026,905 BTC moved - with zero effect on the level
- Maturation (coins that simply sat past 155 days): -1,619,944 BTC
- Old hands handing coins back: +1,203,677 BTC
- New issuance net of fees: +38,177 BTC
- Net change of the level: -378,090 BTC
So the level is falling for the least dramatic reason possible: coins are sitting still. Maturation runs at its 91.9th percentile - near record. Actual STH turnover sits at its 40th percentile - an ordinary day at the office. If this were "pure panic", turnover would be in the top tail. It is not.
One more twist: across 4,882 rolling windows, MORE young-coin selling correlates with a RISING level (Spearman +0.231) - the opposite of what the label implies.
The chart is real. The label is not. Next time a green area screams panic, ask what it actually counts.
Data: own UTXO ledger, max divergence vs our published series build 0.05 BTC. NFA.