Bernstein cut its price target for Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC dollar stablecoin, while maintaining its long-term growth view.

The Block reported on July 29 that Bernstein lowered its target to $140 from $190, a cut of more than 26%, on expectations that Circle’s second-quarter results will be broadly flat. Even after the reduction, the new target implies about 118% upside from the current share price of about $64.

Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating, arguing that the market has overstated the threat from OpenUSD. The OpenUSD consortium, launched in June with more than 140 payments, financial and fintech companies including Visa, Mastercard and Stripe, had pressured Circle shares.

As a counterpoint, Bernstein said Circle has been signing separate memorandums of understanding with consortium participants. It also pointed to comments from a Samsung official that there had been no formal discussions on OpenUSD and that the company’s role remained unclear, raising questions about the consortium’s cohesion. Visa executives also said on a recent earnings call that the company would maintain a multi-coin, multi-chain strategy rather than rely on any single stablecoin.

Still, a revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid is weighing on profitability. Circle and Coinbase agreed in May to allocate about 90% of the reserve income generated from Circle deposits on Hyperliquid to the platform.

Under that arrangement, Hyperliquid stands to receive about $190 million of Circle’s annual reserve income of $210 million. The agreement will begin to directly affect Circle’s earnings in the third quarter.

Reflecting weakness in the crypto market, Bernstein cut its year-end forecast for Circle supply by about 37% from its previous estimate to $83 billion. It also lowered its 2028 forecast by about 40% to $170 billion.

Bernstein kept its long-term growth outlook unchanged. It projects total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle accounting for about 30% of the global stablecoin market.