$MSTR just gave us the playbook — and it's the death of the MNAV expansion story.
Friday: right side = 90% of left side.
Today: right side = left side.
Balance restored. Game over for outperformance vs leveraged ETF.
What they're doing now:
• Token dividend bump (weak)
• Small preferred buyback (<10% notional)
• Words about preferred going to par (empty)
• Will issue more preferred at par
• Will sell common when right side > left side
• Will sell $BTC or common to save the preferred in stress
• Will sell $BTC or common to fund dividends
This is now a leveraged closed-end fund. They're managing MNAV at 1.0x, not expanding it.
Preferred has a few points up (at common's expense) or rallies with $BTC. Common is stuck.
I'm neutral $BTC here, buyer at 42069. No edge in leveraged ETFs short term.
Flipped the preferred for quick money. Done with $MSTR unless something breaks.
Friday: right side = 90% of left side.
Today: right side = left side.
Balance restored. Game over for outperformance vs leveraged ETF.
What they're doing now:
• Token dividend bump (weak)
• Small preferred buyback (<10% notional)
• Words about preferred going to par (empty)
• Will issue more preferred at par
• Will sell common when right side > left side
• Will sell $BTC or common to save the preferred in stress
• Will sell $BTC or common to fund dividends
This is now a leveraged closed-end fund. They're managing MNAV at 1.0x, not expanding it.
Preferred has a few points up (at common's expense) or rallies with $BTC. Common is stuck.
I'm neutral $BTC here, buyer at 42069. No edge in leveraged ETFs short term.
Flipped the preferred for quick money. Done with $MSTR unless something breaks.