forecasts

On February 10–11, 2026, the U.S. government released its latest retail sales figures — a key monthly indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The report showed that retail sales were flat in December, coming in at 0.0% month-on-month, despite forecasts pointing to around +0.4% growth. �
Reuters +1
Analysts had expected the continuing post-holiday consumer resilience to lift sales modestly, but the reading showed no growth and came alongside downward revisions to previous months. Core measures excluding volatile categories also failed to meet expectations. �
Babypips.com
Key Findings
Retail sales unchanged at $735 billion, below the projected rise. �
VT Markets -
Year-over-year increases slowed, signaling weakening consumer demand. �
MEXC
Economic indicators suggest broader consumer fatigue amid inflationary pressures and rising living costs. �
The Wall Street Journal
Immediate Market Reactions
The weak retail sales reading reverberated across global financial markets:
Traditional Markets
Equity futures and stock indices showed mixed to cautious trading, as traders reassessed growth prospects. �
BSS
Treasury yields fell modestly, reflecting risk-off positioning. �
FXStreet
The U.S. dollar softened slightly as markets digested the data. �
VT Markets -
What This Means for Monetary Policy
With consumer demand appearing to ease, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes are being reassessed. Soft retail data increases speculation that the Fed may pause or delay tightening, pending upcoming jobs and inflation reports. �
Reuters
Impact on Crypto Markets & Binance
Although the retail sales miss was fundamentally about U.S. consumer data, it has notable implications for the cryptocurrency landscape — particularly on platforms such as Binance where traders react swiftly to macroeconomic shifts.
1. Crypto Prices Respond to Macro Data
Soft economic data can boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, for several reasons:
Expectations of slower rate hikes or easier monetary policy tend to weaken the dollar, making risk assets more attractive.
Reduced yields on traditional assets may divert capital toward Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.
Indeed, some market sources reported that Bitcoin and other major cryptos climbed modestly after softer U.S. retail sales and inflation data, reinforcing the narrative that lower rates could benefit risk assets. �
TradingView
2. Binance Traders & Liquidity Flows
Binance — one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges — typically sees increased trading volumes around macroeconomic news events:
Traders use retail sales miss data to position for potential monetary easing.
Crypto derivatives and futures on Binance may experience higher volatility, with leveraged traders adjusting positions in BTC and ETH based on sentiment shifts.
3. Longer-Term Narrative
A persistent slowdown in consumer spending raises broader questions about economic growth and investor confidence — themes that often correlate with crypto cycles. A series of weak economic prints could shift the balance toward longer-term bullish narratives for Bitcoin as a hedge, if real yields remain depressed.
Where Markets Go From Here
While one report rarely tells the full story, this retail sales miss has:
Reignited debate on Fed rate direction.
Influenced FX and fixed income markets.
Triggered nuanced reactions in digital assets via trading behavior on exchanges like Binance.
The upcoming employment and inflation data releases will be critical in shaping the next leg of market moves — both in traditional finance and crypto. Analysts caution that retail sales are just one piece of the broader economic puzzle, but in the current environment, they carry outsized influence on risk asset pricing.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast #Binance #RetailSales #CryptoMarkets #forecasts

$BTC Bitcoin price edges lower around $85,500 on Thursday after gaining nearly 5% the previous day.US President Trump called on the Fed to lower interest rates as tariffs start to hurt the economy.US spot ETF recorded the third straight day of inflows so far this week.The Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on Thursday marks a historic first for a sitting US president to speak at a crypto conference.
Bitcoin (BTC) edges lower, trading around $85,500 at the time of writing on Thursday, after recovering nearly 5% the previous day following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain its rate cut forecast for the year. Additionally, United States (US) President Donald Trump posted on the Truth Social platform on Wednesday, calling on the Fed to lower interest rates as tariffs start to hurt the economy. The US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have recorded inflows for the third consecutive day this week, signaling a reduction in sell-side pressure.
On Thursday, US President Trump’s address at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit marks a historic event as it's the first time a sitting president speaks at a crypto conference, suggesting growing recognition of the industry at the highest levels.

Talks on Russia-Ukraine war boost crypto investors' confidence 
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Tuesday for an immediate pause in strikes against energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war. 
Moreover, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Trump agreed to work together to end the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, further boosting investors' confidence toward risky assets like Bitcoin.
However, traders should also keep an eye on the rising tension in Gaza. The Israeli military said that it launched a limited ground incursion into Gaza a day after an aerial bombardment of the Strip that shattered the two-month-old ceasefire with Hamas. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of fierce war expansion, which could hinder investors' confidence and lead to a risk-off sentiment in the crypto market.
Trump calls Fed for a rate cut
Bitcoin's price recovered nearly 5% on Wednesday, reaching a high of $87,000, bolstered by the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain its rate cut forecast for the year. 
Haresh Menghani, analyst at FXStreet, posted, “As was widely expected, the US central bank held interest rates steady for the second straight meeting and signaled that it would deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year.”
However, Fed officials trimmed their growth forecast for the year amid the growing uncertainty over the impact of the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies on economic activity. Since February, Trump has imposed a flat 25% duty on steel and aluminum and threatened to impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs, fueling worries about a global trade war. 
On Wednesday, Donald Trump posted on the Truth Social platform, calling on the Fed to lower interest rates as tariffs start to hurt the economy.
Trump posted: “ The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!”
Trump to address Digital Asset Summit in New York
On Thursday, President Trump’s address at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit 2025 marks a historic event as it's the first time a sitting president speaks at a crypto conference, suggesting growing recognition of the industry at the highest levels.
This event follows Trump's recent executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, using seized Bitcoin, as part of his administration's push to position the US as the "crypto capital of the world."
The summit, hosted in New York City, features discussions on the future of digital assets, involving key figures from the crypto industry and policymakers, reflecting the administration’s rapid moves to support and regulate the sector.

Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC
Q: What impact do you think President Trump's upcoming address at the Digital Asset Summit (DAS) in New York will have on Bitcoin’s market sentiment and the future of cryptocurrency regulations?
The sitting president’s speech at a cryptocurrency conference in New York is a major event for the entire market, and its impact is already being felt — Bitcoin has settled at $85,000. If this level doesn’t hold, a short-term sell-off could follow, bringing prices back to the $81,000–$83,000 range.
Donald Trump’s remarks could bring surprises. A statement in support of the industry and a pledge to ease regulatory pressure would likely trigger a positive market reaction and push Bitcoin’s price higher. A return to early February levels of $103,000, or even a new all-time high, is entirely possible. What will Trump say? What will Elon Musk post? Will Trump Jr. show his support? These factors will determine how significant price fluctuations might be.
If Trump takes a stricter stance, emphasizing the need for tighter control over the crypto sector, a short-term dip in Bitcoin’s price is likely. However, given the already bearish market sentiment, a drop below $80,000 remains an unlikely scenario.
Investors are looking for clarity — bold statements followed by real action. Even hints at regulatory easing could drive renewed interest and increased participation from institutional players. For months, the market has been driven by speculation and news, making it uncertain just how strong the reaction will be this time." 
James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet
His upcoming address at the Digital Asset Summit (DAS) in New York could be pivotal for DeFi, as it’s the first time a sitting U.S. president has spoken at such an event. It’s also a chance for him to clarify his administration’s stance on the strategic reserve and broader regulations. Bitcoin has rebounded past $86,000 in recent days. If the price surges after his address, that will be a strong signal."
Bitcoin sees a slight boost in institutional demand
Bitcoin institutional investors have shown slight signs of improvement this week. According to Coinglass data, the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a third straight day of net inflow of $11.80 million on Wednesday, after a net inflow of $483.7 million in the previous two days. Bitcoin's price could recover further if this inflow continues and intensifies, indicating a reduction in sell-side pressure.

Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow chart. Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC bulls aim for $90,000 if 200-day EMA holds
Bitcoin's price broke and closed above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Wednesday, reaching a high of $87,000 that day. At the time of writing on Thursday, it trades slightly down, retesting its 200-day EMA at $85,540.
If BTC finds support and bounces off the 200-day EMA, it could extend the rally to retest its key psychological level of $90,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 48 after being rejected from its neutral level of 50 on Wednesday, indicating slight bearish momentum. The RSI must move above its neutral level of 50 for the recovery rally to be sustained.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a bullish crossover on the daily chart last week, giving a buy signal and suggesting a bullish trend ahead. Additionally, it shows rising green histogram levels above its neutral level of zero, indicating strength in upward momentum.

#bitcoin
#BTC走势分析
#forecasts
#StrategySmallestBTC