Bitcoin armed a quarterly trend signal this week, and the useful part is not the target. It is knowing which half of a projection to trust.
On the three month Bitstamp bar, price trades 85,826, up 46.64% on the quarter. The signal level sits at 83,324, with 33,728 below it. Crossing 83,324 is what armed it.
The trigger is already in. From here only two things undo it: the quarter closing as a down bar, or 56,500 going.
The September 30 close still matters, just not for deciding whether the signal is valid. It sets the bar's range.
The projection runs to 509,000 into October 2028.
Here is why I would trust the date more than the number, and it is on the public record. In February 2024 I published that the advance would run to roughly Q3 2025 and that returns would get worse after that. That is when it topped. In November 2023 I published that total crypto market cap would expand from 1.32 trillion to between 4.8 and 19.55 trillion. It peaked near 4.08 trillion, below even the low end of my own band.
Timing landed. The price target came in low. That has been the pattern for several cycles, so read 509,000 as the top of a range and let 56,500 do the real work.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #TrendFollowing #Quarterly #Macro
On the three month Bitstamp bar, price trades 85,826, up 46.64% on the quarter. The signal level sits at 83,324, with 33,728 below it. Crossing 83,324 is what armed it.
The trigger is already in. From here only two things undo it: the quarter closing as a down bar, or 56,500 going.
The September 30 close still matters, just not for deciding whether the signal is valid. It sets the bar's range.
The projection runs to 509,000 into October 2028.
Here is why I would trust the date more than the number, and it is on the public record. In February 2024 I published that the advance would run to roughly Q3 2025 and that returns would get worse after that. That is when it topped. In November 2023 I published that total crypto market cap would expand from 1.32 trillion to between 4.8 and 19.55 trillion. It peaked near 4.08 trillion, below even the low end of my own band.
Timing landed. The price target came in low. That has been the pattern for several cycles, so read 509,000 as the top of a range and let 56,500 do the real work.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #TrendFollowing #Quarterly #Macro
